June 30, 2004

Drudge is reporting:

Official Washington and the entire press corps will be rocked when Hillary Rodham Clinton is picked as Kerry's VP and a massive love fest will begin!

So predicts a top D.C. insider, who spoke to the DRUDGE REPORT on condition he not be named.

I don't believe it for one second, and you shouldn't either. Kerry wants Hillary for a running mate about as much as he wants to lower your taxes and start slashing federal entitlement programs.

First, I think that a lot of the "reasoning" in that Drudge article is hogwash. To cite one example:

"Kerry believes that no one is better on national security than he is, he served in Vietnam after all, so he has that covered and the suggestion that he needs to strengthen the ticket with someone who has national security credentials is dismissed as foolish."

There is no way that John Kerry thinks that. If John Kerry really thought that, he'd be way more foolish that I'd ever imagined. Every single poll that I've ever seen (sorry for the lack of a cite - I need to go to bed) shows Bush just plain killing Kerry on National Security issues.

Second, Kerry doesn't really have anything to gain. Kerry needs the Southeast and the so called industrial states of the North and Midwest (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan). The addition of Hillary to the ticket won't do anything to help in that area. John Edwards is the clear choice to help deliver those states. (and, considering that Kerry and Edwards are diametrically opposed on issues that those folks really care about, like the Second Amendment and NAFTA, it would fit perfectly in to his flip-flop and waffle strategies.) What's Hillary going to do, shore up Long Island?

But wait, you say, "the addition of Hillary brings out the female vote!" That's true, to an extent. The addition of Hillary will get some people who wouldn't otherwise vote to get to the polls and cast a vote for Kerry solely because they want to see a woman in the White House. But it will bring voters out on the other side, too, those who would vote just to keep a woman, or, more specifically, Hillary, out of the White House. Hillary is not well liked outside of the universe of "people who are going to get out and vote for whatever Dummocrat runs, no matter who it is." Sure, you'd see the media falling all over themselves talking about how excited they are that Hillary is running, but who do you think they'd vote for if she wasn't?

Besides, even if I'm wrong about the "counter effect," and the addition of Hillary does indeed cause support for the dums to skyrocket, that effect can be "equalized" by the good guys if need be.

Third, do you really think that Kerry wants Bill Clinton in his life?

Fourth, as for Hillary, she stands to gain little and lose a lot. If Hillary Clinton wanted to run for President, the nomination was (and technically still is) hers for the asking. Why would she "settle" for VP?

I stand by my earlier assertion that John Edwards is the best choice for Kerry, and that Edwards would lose too much if he accepted. All this Hillary hullabaloo is directed at getting Edwards to accept the invitation to join. See, Edwards knows that if Kerry loses in 2004, then it's him in 2008. But, if Kerry wins in 2004, it's Kerry in 2008, effectively cutting Edwards out while he's in his prime.

I don't think he will fall for it. My VP guess is Dick Gephardt.

But what do I know, I'm just some guy on the internet.

Posted by jkhat at June 30, 2004 09:46 PM

    The trackback entry for this page is : http://www.inthehat.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/191