check out: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/12/politics/trail/12TRAIL-MARRIAGE.html

doesn't it make you want to laugh? especially after looking at your map haha.

I'd be very surprised if Bush takes Wisconsin or Oregon, or even New Mexico. Only NM has voted GOP in the last 4 elections. Current polls show the following:

Kerry up in Wisconsin by 6-9 points,

Kerry up in Oregon by 9 points,

Kerry up in New Mexico by 7 points.

He could very well win the rest of those, though.

Interestingly enough, that would leave Bush with 22 EVs less, and Kerry would have 22 EVs more, making it 269-269!!!

Actually, under that scenario, Bush would likely win one of the two house-based electors in Maine (2 are house-based and go by majority in their district, 2 are senate-based and go by majority in the state), thus winning 270-268, even if Kerry takes the state of Maine as a whole. Nebraska does it that way, too, but all 3 districts vote GOP.

Anyway, I think that's a much more realistic path to a win for Bush.

Another possibility would be having Bush take Iowa, as well. Latest polls show Kerry only leading by 2-3 points there.

Also, the Fox article on Bush winning NJ is still farfetched, Kerry leading by 10 points in the lastest poll

http://www.angelfire.com/dc2/electoral/index.html

So the strategy for a Bush win HAS to be (in order):

1) win Florida and Ohio at all costs. Either one of those lost, and the election is lost. If both are not possible, win one and steal Michigan (a 3-5 point Kerry lead) away from the Dems, which will be very difficult. Pennsylvania (the other possibility) is probably already lost.

2) Win Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Also win Nevada.

3) Shore up AZ & CO, and shore up WV, VA, NC.

4) If possible, steal Iowa, NH, part of Maine, or maybe even Minnesota (a 5-point Kerry lead) away.

Barring major missteps by Kerry, there is no way Bush can come away with a decisive victory. He's gonna have to scrape it out if the numbers stay as they are, so he'll have to concentrate his assets very strategically.

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