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  • My Electoral College Count: July 9

       July 09, 2004

    Wall Street Journal's Opinion Journal has a nifty feature to help you figure out who will win the election and how they'll do it.

    Right now, this is how I have it coming down. I'll try to post new maps every other week or so until the election. And then, come November 3, we'll see how accurate I was.

    July 24 Update: See my latest prediction.


    Posted by at July 9, 2004 02:42 PM

        The trackback entry for this page is : http://www.inthehat.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/219

     

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    Comments

    #  March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM      Converted_Comment
    Converted comment: Posted by: Dave at July 12, 2004 10:53 AM

    check out: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/12/politics/trail/12TRAIL-MARRIAGE.html

    doesn't it make you want to laugh? especially after looking at your map haha.

     
     
    #  March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM      Converted_Comment
    Converted comment: Posted by: Steve at July 22, 2004 12:09 PM

    I'd be very surprised if Bush takes Wisconsin or Oregon, or even New Mexico. Only NM has voted GOP in the last 4 elections. Current polls show the following:

    Kerry up in Wisconsin by 6-9 points,

    Kerry up in Oregon by 9 points,

    Kerry up in New Mexico by 7 points.

    He could very well win the rest of those, though.

    Interestingly enough, that would leave Bush with 22 EVs less, and Kerry would have 22 EVs more, making it 269-269!!!

    Actually, under that scenario, Bush would likely win one of the two house-based electors in Maine (2 are house-based and go by majority in their district, 2 are senate-based and go by majority in the state), thus winning 270-268, even if Kerry takes the state of Maine as a whole. Nebraska does it that way, too, but all 3 districts vote GOP.

    Anyway, I think that's a much more realistic path to a win for Bush.

    Another possibility would be having Bush take Iowa, as well. Latest polls show Kerry only leading by 2-3 points there.

     
     
    #  March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM      Converted_Comment
    Converted comment: Posted by: Steve at July 22, 2004 12:24 PM

    Also, the Fox article on Bush winning NJ is still farfetched, Kerry leading by 10 points in the lastest poll

    http://www.angelfire.com/dc2/electoral/index.html

    So the strategy for a Bush win HAS to be (in order):

    1) win Florida and Ohio at all costs. Either one of those lost, and the election is lost. If both are not possible, win one and steal Michigan (a 3-5 point Kerry lead) away from the Dems, which will be very difficult. Pennsylvania (the other possibility) is probably already lost.

    2) Win Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Also win Nevada.

    3) Shore up AZ & CO, and shore up WV, VA, NC.

    4) If possible, steal Iowa, NH, part of Maine, or maybe even Minnesota (a 5-point Kerry lead) away.

    Barring major missteps by Kerry, there is no way Bush can come away with a decisive victory. He's gonna have to scrape it out if the numbers stay as they are, so he'll have to concentrate his assets very strategically.

     
     
    #  March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM      Converted_Comment
    Converted comment: Posted by: lolita at January 19, 2005 08:22 PM

    Hello folks nice blog youre running

     
     

     

     


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