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  • Revealing Media Buys

       July 21, 2004

    According to the Nielson Monitor-Plus and the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project 60% of Americans live in areas where no Presidential ads have aired since the end of primary season.

    Additionally, the Bush campaign ads have outrun Kerry ads in 83 of 93 contested media markets. However, when Kerry's ads are combined with those of allied groups (Media Fund, MoveOn.org, etc.), he outguns Bush in 62 markets.

    So where are the campaigns advertising? The top markets for both campaigns combined are:

    1. Toledo, OH
    2. Dayton, OH
    3. Kansas City, MO
    4. Columbus, OH
    5. Cleveland, OH
    6. St. Louis, MO
    7. Portland, OR
    8. Erie, PA
    9. Las Vegas, NV
    10. Detroit, MI

    And below you'll find a breakdown of where each campaign is spending (and outspending).

    Look at the two different strategies exposed in those tables. The Kerry campaign and their surrogates are throwing all their eggs in the Ohio basket, with a few strays in Missouri. To them, clearly, Ohio is do or die.

    By contrast, the Bush campaign is targeting specific areas in several key states. Why? Because, Bush can win without Ohio. Bush has numerous winning scenarios, which either exclude or include some of the key battleground states. Kerry's strategy, on the other hand, reveals that his campaign does not have a winning scenario without Ohio.

    The problem with the Kerry campaign is that this strategy is weak. Even if they can win Ohio, they'll still need to win (most likely) Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, Maine, Iowa, Wisconsin, West Virginia and either Florida or Missouri. Can he do this without significant media buys in the vast majority of those states? It doesn't seem likely.


    Posted by at July 21, 2004 04:24 PM

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    Comments

    #  March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM      Converted_Comment
    Converted comment: Posted by: jkhat at July 21, 2004 05:24 PM

    i disagree that kerry needs to run ads in "a vast majority of"

    - no way does bush win washington. gore won it 50-45, and all polls have kerry up by as many as 9.

    - oregon was close last time, but it wont be this time. kerry takes oregon b/c bush has alienated way too many people on the libertarian side of the party. the "conservative" base, which excludes holy-rollers, are just gonna stay home.

    - minnesota - not a single poll has MN going to bush. when have you ever known MN to go for a republican? last time was eisenhower. they voted for mondale, for godssake.

    - michigan - almost all polls have mi leaning kerry. i would have expected this one to be more competitive, but it aint lookin that way so far.

    - new hampshire - the first state on your list that is actually under contention. but - nader polling data shows that a lot of conservatives are very, very dissatisfied with bush, much like they are in oregon. bush is right to be running ads here.

    kerry can win these states without trying very hard. bush doesn't have the commanding lead that you think he does.

    not only is the left succeeding in mobilizing their "base," but bush, by spending more money than any liberal president ever, by vastly increasing the size of the federal government, by supporting legislation that restricts autonomy, by creating the largest entitlement program in the history of the world with the "presciption drug benefit," by popping up on tv with a cross on his shoulder one thousand too many times, has done a great job of alienating his.

    you ever listed to "conservative" host michael savage? he's staying home from the polls. he's urging others to stay home, too. he says "bush is a liberal, don't vote for him." he isnt alone in thinking that.

    kerry's strategy is "anybody but bush." the gop will not win on a similar strategy.

     
     
    #  March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM      Converted_Comment
    Converted comment: Posted by: jkhat at July 21, 2004 05:28 PM

    btw, you can find polling data and past election data at dale's, and you can see the post about nader from last week for the numbers to support my comments re: him.

     
     
    #  March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM      Converted_Comment
    Converted comment: Posted by: kris at July 21, 2004 05:48 PM

    I agree with you and I have all those states as blue in my last prediction (except Oregon, which I just have a feeling about).

    Conversely, I think Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Missouri & Arkansas almost certainly go to Bush.

    I personally see it coming down to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida & West Virginia. Quite a few combos of those states will give Bush a win, while Kerry needs to win nearly ALL of them for a win. That's why I think Bush is in a stronger position.

    Plus, look at the areas Bush is advertising in in battleground states. That's his base. Don't think he's not advertising to the base just as much as Kerry & Co.

     
     
    #  March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM      Converted_Comment
    Converted comment: Posted by: Tom Galvin at July 21, 2004 11:42 PM

    Ohio is very important to the Bush campaign. But, Kerry's relentless advertising in Ohio is not paying off much dividends. Sooner or later, Kerry is going to have pull out of Ohio and spread the "wealth."

    The fact that President Bush is holding strong in Ohio despite the Kerry blitz is a very good sign for him.

    Note that the president is focusing on areas that are his base. He might be trying to 1) rev up the conservative base 2) focus on the moderates later or 3) both. Right now, I think the campaign is trying win with # 1.

     
     
    #  March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM      Converted_Comment
    Converted comment: Posted by: Dave at July 22, 2004 01:36 AM

    that is hilarious...

    for a not-so-obvious reason, and only for someone like me. look at the markets with bush adavantage. number 6.) alpena, MI.

    haha. i lived there about 2 years ago. a population of 16,000 or so. very small community to be considered on something so national scale. basically the town consists of retired people (veterans), farmers (hicks if i may), and then the few people that might be conservative that work for the county. i'd say that covers 70% of the town population, as there isn't much up there. just amusing to see that town on such a scale hehe.

     
     
    #  March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM      Converted_Comment
    Converted comment: Posted by: John Climacus at July 22, 2004 08:01 PM

    Good information, thanks. Here in ol' Virginny we'll never see a presidential campaign ad except those that appear on cable. It's disappointing, but also reassuring to live in a state that Bush has locked up so my wife's attempts to counterbalance my votes are futile. BWAA HAA HAA HAA HAA.

     
     
    #  March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM      Converted_Comment
    Converted comment: Posted by: at December 22, 2004 12:01 AM

    You are invited to check the sites about... Thanks!!!

     
     

     

     


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