My Electoral College Prediction-Pre-DNC
With the help of OpinionJournal.com's handy Electoral College Calculator and Dale's fabulous Electoral College Breakdown 2004, here's how I see the election breaking down. (A quick caveat, these are my opinions only, James doesn't necessarily agree with me and, while I look at current polls, some of this is also based on simple hunches of what's going to happen a couple of months down the road).
As you can see, I didn't really change that much from my last guess. Upon further review, I decided Oregon would swing to Kerry. I know that some recent polls show Wisconsin leaning to Kerry, but I don't buy it. The Bush campaign is going after the state hard and, when it comes down to it, I believe the good people of Wisconsin (outside of Madison that is) will recognize that Kerry is a complete phony. If there's one thing Cheeseheads won't accept, it's a phony.
I'm confident that Ohio will go to Bush. Dale's still has it leaning to Bush despite the Kerry's advertising barrage. If it's not going to Kerry now, it never will (okay, maybe for a little while right after the convention, but that's it).
I've no doubt that this map will look very silly in light of polls taken immediately after the DNC, but keep in mind that this race is a marathon, not a sprint.
Posted by kris at July 24, 2004 01:14 PM
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Comments
| # March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM Converted_Comment | |
Thanks for plugging my site! But who's Dale? :-) Dales is a nickname of mine, not Dale. My name is Gerry Daly, like the drunk golfer. :-) Gerry |
| # March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM Converted_Comment | |
oops! i should have known better. |
| # March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM Converted_Comment | |
Bush might win most of the states you have listed now, but I think you're way off on Wisconsin. http://www.angelfire.com/dc2/electoral/index.html The last few polls have Kerry winning the Cheesehead state by 6-9 points. And Wisconsin almost always goes Dem. Also, there's a LOT of really borderline states where it's tied or Kerry has a slight lead: Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, Tennessee. I think Bush has to bump up the national number to get these, local advertising won't be enough. He has to win the debates. |
| # March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM Converted_Comment | |
...and New Mexico is a stretch, too. Give Bush everything you have, minus Wisconsin and New Mexico. Bush: 274, Kerry: 264. |
| # March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM Converted_Comment | |
Yeah, I know Wisconsin usually goes to the Dems, but Gore won by only 5,000 votes and the state had a beloved Republican governor and the two Senators, while Democrats are kinda mavericks. Kerry is no maverick. The more he shows his face in the state, the more people will dislike him. Bush is campaigning hard here and the economy is good. I think he pulls it out. But, we'll see. |
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