Grim Speculation
Dick Cheney is at the hospital again this afternoon. Let's hope everything is okay and that Cheney's shortness of breath is related to a bad cold and has nothing to do with his heart.
But, given Cheney's history, it's really hard to not speculate on what would happen if he passed away or if he decided remaining as VP put his health in too much jeopardy. In that situation, President Bush would get to pick a new Vice President, who would have to be confirmed by Congress. Who would the President choose? Here's some amateur speculation:
- Condoleezza Rice: She won't be National Security Advisor in her second term. So it's either up or out for her. Putting her in the VP slot accomplishes so many things: it's historic, it maintains the VP's current important role in foreign policy, it means Rumsfield can stay at Defense until he's ready to go and it sets up Rice as a viable 2008 Presidential candidate.
- Tommy Thompson: Don't laugh. Thompson also wants out of HHS. He has a reputation as a centrist and his selection would be an indication that the White House wants to give domestic issues more of a priority in the second term. Thompson has a reputation as an innovater and he could play an important role in reforming such things as social security and the tax code. On the down side, I don't think anyone thinks he's a viable 2008 candidate.
- John McCain: I'm really just putting him here because if I don't someone will protest in the comments. I don't think there's a chance in hell that Bush wants McCain standing next to him. McCain is the kind of guy he'd pick if he believed any of the "no mandate" talk. On the positive side, a VP McCain wouldn't be able to obstruct things in the Senate.
- Bill Frist: the Senate Majority Leader would be a natural choice for the GOP. As with almost any pick, he'd give the GOP an immediate 2008 front runner.
- Rudy Guiliani: Rudy doesn't seem to want a role in the administrative, but you can bet he wouldn't turn down VP. Sure, he's not that conservative, but there's a strong tradition of the Vice President representing a different position within the party. Having someone like Rudy as VP would also be a good way for the GOP to keep the "big tent" intact and protect against voters deserting the party if the Dems wake up and run more centrist candidates.
- John Danforth: He's my dark horse. It's another pick that would keep with Cheney's foreign policy oriented role. I'm sure he'd love to get out of the UN (who wouldn't).
- Zell Miller: Yeah, there's probably no chance of this one, but wouldn't it be fun? On a more serious note, Bush could signal that he's serious about be a uniter by choosing a conservative Democrat as VP. But who? I can't think of anyone off hand
Hopefully this is an irrelevant discussion, but if it's not, I'd bet on Rice. What do you all think?
Update: Luckily, it looks like Dick Cheney is okay. Of course, given that Cheney was a doctoral candidate at Wisconsin, perhaps the 'ole ticker isn't out of the woods yet. I know my heart is broken after this game.
Posted by at November 13, 2004 02:08 PM
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Comments
| # March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM Converted_Comment | |
j-e-b. his term is up in 06.
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| # March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM Converted_Comment | |
that'd be too ballsy even for Bush. |
| # March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM Converted_Comment | |
I don't know, I've kind of always wanted to give Condi an M-4 and let her romp through Iran. Their government would fall in a week. |
| # March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM Converted_Comment | |
why couldn't she do both? the duties of the VP aren't set in stone, they're determined by the President. Bush could turn her loose. |
| # March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM Converted_Comment | |
Rice is a brilliant woman but needs time to warm to the cameras. How much face-time the admin gives her in critical national press conferences will serve as a good signal that she is being groomed. That said, Bush signaled that he likes to play it safe the other day by putting Gonzales in AG. If Bush continues to play it safe, I see Tom Ridge getting tapped for VP. Ridge may pick Rice as a running mate, which would be a tough ticket to compete with. Hillary will not get the nomination. She is loathed by too many Dems. |
| # March 7th, 2005 6:48 PM Converted_Comment | |
My bet is on Condoleezza Rice and second choice would be Bill Frist. I believe Bush and the GOP are bold enough to support Condi. |







