"In the Spring following a Presidential election, a young
Virginian's fancy lightly turns to thoughts of gubernatorial
politics." -Lord Alfred Tantyson.

Earlier last week, John Behan made some very insightful observations about Virginia's contribution to national politics.

First, a short primer is in order for those who aren't familiar with our fair commonwealth. Virginia technically is a very conservative state. I say technically because there's a contingent in Northern Virginia, near DC, which would elect Karl Marx given half a chance. However, the lower state tends to the deep, crimson red (and whatever comes after red...we have a fair share of voters in that area who thought Michael Badnarik was a reasonable candiate...). Northern Virginia also represents quite a bit of the money in the state, as well as a significant portion of the state's population. This has always been an interesting feature of Virginia politics, and actually tends to mirror the national Red v. Blue issues.

Now, our governors are term limited to one four year term. That's right...they are almost immediately lame ducks, which in my opinion is the only thing that made Gov. Mark Warner's term bearable (more on that in a minute). So after their terms, there's a bit of a question as to what our fair governors do next. This is made more compelling by the fact that our gubernatorial elections take place in odd years...and it being 2005, we're looking at one this year. This means Governor Warner is leaving office just in time to start a campaign for a federal office...like Senator.

Indeed, that's the traditional route for our ex governors (ex-Governor George Allen is now our junior Senator), although barring a Senate run our guys tend toward national party positions...former Governor Gilmore headed the Republican National Committee after his term, for example. But more compelling is the fact that, prior to winning election as our governor, Mark Warner mounted a failed challenge to Senator John Warner. I think it's plain the guy has national aspirations. So, as Senator Allen comes up for reelection in 2006, and with Gov. Warner leaving office in January of that year, that gives plenty of time to set up a Senate campaign for the ambitious Governor Warner.

However, Behan doesn't think Warner will risk any of his political capital on that Senate race. That's a pretty shrewd observation, but I'm not sure Warner is necessarily going to skip to a Presidential race either. That isn't to say Behan's analysis isn't compelling. For one, assuming Warner has a Presidential run in mind for his future, will he want to spend six years in the Senate? Dovetailing with that, the track record of Senators running for President is none too bright.

And then we have Warner's actual governing style. Consider, big picture, there's a Democratic party out there totally confused as to how they can win a Red state, and frankly quite desperate to do so. And here we have Warner, a Blue-To-The-Gills Dem who did just that...won in a Red state. Will that be too attractive for the Democrat leadership to pass up?

Or is attractive even the right term? See, Warner won because he ran as a moderate conservative, not as a Democrat, and certainly not the kind of Democrat the national leadership has recently shown they want to get behind. And Warner has his own weaknesses that will be trumpeted at a national level. For example, Warner ran on an outright promise, repeated ad nauseum, that he wouldn't support a tax increase...and as soon as he was elected, began campaigning to raise taxes. He finally pushed a one billion dollar tax increase through our Assembly (with the help of, to my eternal shame, some Republicans in that body), and almost immediately after we learned that the state was going to post a rather large surplus for 2003 (and, in fact, has posted a nearly one billion dollar surplus for 2004, meaning the tax increase was absolutely unnecessary.). It's arguable as to whether or not Warner knew about the surplus when he was pushing for the tax increase, but that's not the main issue here. The issue is we have a guy with Clinton-like morals when it comes to telling the truth about his positions (positions on issues, that is...get your mind out of the gutter!).

With that, is it reasonable for Warner to expect to get away with the same thing on a national level? For that matter, it's not entirely assured that he's going to get away with it in Virginia. Democrats looking for The Next Blue Hope should be advised that the best path to victory in a Red state is in being Red...and not in conning the voters into thinking the candidate is Red. But again, it's iffy as to
whether Democrats are even interested in moderating their tone in the first place. Look at what happened when Gore lost...the party tilted even further to the Left. And now that Kerry is a goner, what was the Democrats' response? Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. Barbara Boxer doing her best to sideline any chance Democrats have of being taken seriously in the near future by objecting to the Ohio Electoral Vote. Michael Moore being treated like The Little Prince (actually, I'd better make that the YOUNG prince...). This is not a party currently interested in the moderation Mark Warner claims to be offering. This is a party sinking further into the morass of partisanship and snarkiness, not one interested in the reform needed to win a national election.

Frankly, Warner has a chance to win a Virginia Senate nomination. But for him to get a Presidential nomination would mean the Democratic party would need to stop on a dime and turn their bus around immediately from their headlong rush into the ash heap of history. And there's little evidence they are willing to do that. If anything...they're downshifting and stepping on the gas. For that reason, I think we'll see another Warner/Warner Senate race further down the road. Think about it. In the wake of an unnecessary one billion dollar tax increase imposed right as the Virginia economy was recovering, the next Governor will have to deal with the fallout. And just as the economy is starting to falter (if necessary, the VA Democrats will help talk it down), along comes Mark Warner as a tacit reminder of "better days," just as Senator John Warner is coming up for reelection. Gov. Warner can afford to wait a couple of years for
that.

But then, I'm the guy who was convinced Howard Dean would win the Democratic nomination...