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  • John Bolton...what's the deal?

       April 20, 2005

    First, sorry for my prolonged absence. Real Life has a bad habit of intruding on my posting.

    Anyway, I received an interesting note in my mailbag yesterday.

    So why the silence about John Bolton? Too embarassed to mention it? To scared to bring it up? So much for your pseudointelectual rep. You're nothing but a hack and this confirms it.

    I say interesting because of the premise. Because we aren't writing about something, that's taken as prima facie evidence that we must feel guilty or embarassed about it. Well I don't know about James, Kris, or Laura...but I haven't done anything about John Bolton because frankly I haven't been following the story.

    I did spend some time last night doing some research on it, and frankly I'm hard pressed to even understand what the issue about Bolton is. As near as I can tell, he's being opposed because he's a conservative. Liberals tend to apply this standard as a test for fitness of office. Why, over the past few months (or years) we've seen this from the so-called Senate Minority leadership. Judge Pryor? Nope, he's conservative. Tom DeLay? Man, talk about conservative! Alberto Gonzales? Well, we'd like a hispanic guy there...but oops, he's conservative! And it's not just us. Pope Benedict XVI? Argh, he's too conservative to be a pope!

    So I wandered around for some background on the guy, and one of the first things I saw was this article (via NRO's Corner). What's the complaint of the Washington Post?

    John Bolton, President Bush's nominee for ambassador to the United Nations, desperately needs a haircut. It does not have to be a $600 Sally Hershberger cut. Bolton simply needs the basics. Tidy the curling, unruly locks at the nape of his neck, tame the volume at the crown, reel in the wings flapping above his ears, and broker a compromise between his sand-colored mop and his snow-colored mustache.

    He needs to do this, not because he should be minding the recommendations of men's fashion magazines or grooming experts but because when he settled in before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee this week to answer questions about his record, his philosophy and his intentions at the U.N., he looked as though he did not even have enough respect for the proceedings to bother combing his hair -- or, for that matter, straightening his tie, or wearing a shirt that did not put his neck in a chokehold. Bolton was one wrinkled suit away from being an insolent mess.

    So according to the WashPost Style section, he's to be opposed because he isn't stylish. And just step back and think about the story. To me it's the sort of thing you'd read in a high-school (or younger) underground newspaper, not a story in a presumed professional work. Even the "reporter's" rationalization insults our intelligence:

    During this testimony, his hand was constantly reaching up to adjust his no-frills glasses. His attire was not merely bland but careless. His hair was so poorly cut, it bordered on rude. Bolton might well argue that appearance has nothing to do with capabilities. But it certainly can be a measure of one's respect for the job.
    Give me a break. Because Bolton isn't some GQ-styled fashionista it all amounts to a lack of respect? From what I've seen of the guy, he's hardly what the article makes him out to be.

    So dismissing that bit of silliness, I started looking deeper. Apparently the big complaint against the guy is that he's....mean. Barbara Boxer has stated that he's the wrong guy for a diplomatic post and that he needs anger management classes. Great, in addition to being an expert on self defense strategies, she's also a psychologist. But how does he have an anger problem? To illustrate, the committee questioned Thomas Fingar, who is the assistant secretary of state for the Bureau of Intelligence Research. Here's what he had to say about Bolton's anger management problem:

    Q: Could you characterize your meeting with Bolton? Was he calm?

    Fingar: No, he was angry. He was standing up.

    Q: Did he raise his voice to you? Did he point his finger in your face?

    Fingar: I don't remember if he pointed. John speaks in such a low voice normally. Was it louder than normal? Probably. I wouldn't characterize it as screaming at me or anything like that. It was more, hands on hips, the body language as I recall it, I knew he was mad.

    Interesting. So he wasn't screaming. He wasn't violently angry. He stood there with his hands on his hips. Obviously this is incredibly disturbing. I mean, what if he had rubbed his forehead? Rolled his eyes? Maybe even a tiny head shake? This guy is a loose cannon, just ready to go off!

    Or not.

    Let's talk a little about what precipitated this extremely anger-ridden performance. Bolton was going to give a speech and wanted to mention some things about Cuba. One of the analysts looking the speech over (a guy by the name of Christian Westerman) saw a couple of things and questioned them. Bolton then told Westerman to send the language to a couple intel-types to see if he was using fair statements. He did so...but he also qualified the request with an analysis of his own, an analysis that disputed the statements.

    Picture this. You're an intel guy. You get a request from Bolton's office to verify if a statement he wants to give is reasonable ("Castro has cooties!!!"). Attached to that request is a memo from the guy forwarding the request basically saying "Can you believe this guy is SO STUPID as to think Castro has cooties? Obviously he's way off base here! But the dumb guy with the bad haircut wants me to go through the motions of this, so could you just tell him he's being ridiculous?" What are you going to do? Well, likely you'll do what one of the guys did, which is call up Bolton on the phone and ask what the hell is going on. Bolton then asks Westerman what he's doing, and Westerman denies including anything with Bolton's request.

    So why was Bolton angry? Because Westerman tried to sabotage Bolton's work and then lied about it. From the transcript, I'm thinking under those circumstances Bolton was actually very reserved. If one of my staff accountants tried to sabotage a financial report I was putting together and then later lied about it, there is no adequate verbal description to the dimension of pissed-off I would be inhabiting.

    But let's take the anger issue from another angle. Why is there this insistence that a US diplomat be the human equivalent of a Care Bear? The way I see it, if a situation calls for a tough talking SOB, then we ought to put one into that situation. And in my opinion, there is no situation in more desperate need of a tough talking SOB than that at the United Nations. We're talking about an organization rife with corruption, the kind of corruption that impairs (if not completely destroys) the mission described in the UN charter. Would a nicey-nice person be effective in that position? I really doubt it.

    But of course Libs can't say that, because it would mean acknowledging that the UN has severe systemic problems, or at least opening up the debate on another level. So instead we're left with vacuous issues revolving around the guy's haircut and how he reacts when a career diplomat tries to sabotage his efforts.


    Posted by John Tant at April 20, 2005 07:38 AM

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    Comments

    #  April 20th, 2005 8:03 AM      james
    so, john, why the silence about D.C. circuit's ruling that MGM should pay $10 million in penalties for forgetting to put a stamp on an outgoing letter? To embarassed to mention it? Too scared to bring it up?

    there's gotta be a top ten list in here somewhere... only i'm not funny enough to think of it.

    my favorite bolton piece is the video available here, at "stopbolton.org" ironically enough. if they don't think that this video makes me love him even more, they're insane

     
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 9:48 AM      Laura
    John, great article and congrats on the Daou report link!  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 10:00 AM      tubino
    Utterly vacuous post you've made on Bolton. YOu can always tell the seriousness of commentary by who they pick to comment on. You've chosen to pick lightweight commentary, and then declared it lightweight. There are plenty of serious issues on which to oppose Bolton, and plenty of serious commentators you could have addressed. Instead, you chose the easy path of lightweight hack deriding other lightweight hacks.

    One of these days morons like Bolton will rinally realize that the US spends more than the rest of the world on military, but cannot maintain mil superiority in the long run because US is already surpassed economically (GDP, per capita income, total market power) by the EU, and will be surpassed by India and China in the long run. When the petro industry switches to euros, when current policies ensure the US must purchase alternative energy technologies because we aren't developing them enough now, when the inefficiencies of the current health care system and the crippling deficits pull the US down further... the US won't be able to kick the UN anymore.

    Bolton is a dinosaur living in the last century. He's the wrong choice.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 10:06 AM      chummer
    You 'pseudointelectual' hack. Enough said there.

    So, tubby, you mention there are plenty of serious issues on which to oppose Bolton, but you fail to mention any of them before entering a rampage on oil, health care, and the military. You picked no actual Bolton commentary and declared it serious, eh?

    I agree that what the UN needs is a serious person who won't dick around in front of the cameras, but will make the necessary changes to fix the UN.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 10:06 AM      JohnTant
    So in other words, tubino, the non-vacuous complaint against Bolton is that he's a "moron."

    Well, thanks for straightening *that* out.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 10:13 AM      tubino
    Uh, the non-vacuous complaint against Bolton is that he's an outdated thinker who hasn't adapted to the current century.

    Too bad you couldn't catch that hte first time...

    From the post: "Tom DeLay? Man, talk about conservative! Alberto Gonzales? Well, we'd like a hispanic guy there...but oops, he's conservative!"

    So you missed the part where Gonzalez perjured himself by claiming no approval of torture methods in the last year - till one turned up written some 8 months prior to his statement.

    And you missed the deLay scandals???

    And somehow the serious commentary on Bolton is, gosh, too hard to find!!!

    What a bunch of lightweights.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 10:21 AM      JohnTant
    Tubino:

    Uh, the non-vacuous complaint against Bolton is that he's an outdated thinker who hasn't adapted to the current century.

    So you oppose him because you have policy differences with him.

    Or, as I wrote:

    As near as I can tell, he's being opposed because he's a conservative.


    I'm reasonably certain that you should have caught that the first time, considering you had to read over it to get to your quote of me.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 10:34 AM      BVBigBro
    Sorry tubino, but once again you have failed to give a single specific reason to oppose Bolton. He may be a bad choice, but I have yet to here one single argument against him. Today in the congress, the Democrats are claiming they need more time before Bolton can be affirmed. What for? Are they opposing him without being familiar with his posiitons, or do they oppose him for reasons unrelated to his positions?

    Secondly, Bush won the election. Again. Why should he appoint some liberal thinker? The people who voted for him did so in part specifically to avoid liberal appointments.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 10:35 AM      tubino
    John Tant:

    If being conservative means being an outdated thinker, then I guess you're right, I could have picked that up in your post.

    If CONSERVATIVE means being mired in corruption and scandals, and perjuring yourself on a topic as important as approval of torture, then I guess you're right, I am being redundant in my criticisms. Apparently when we say someone is being opposed for being -- as near as you can tell -- conservative, it's just trivial (your view) opposition to ineffective leadership, scandal, corruption, lying under oath, etc.

    I guess I can live with that.

    If pointing out that someone like Bolton is an idiotic choice because he would be counterproductive EVEN FOR YOUR OWN GOALS is a "policy difference" for you, then you don't understand the language.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 11:00 AM      kris
     
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 11:01 AM      tubino
    BVBigBro,

    You are locked in a liberal-conservative mindset that is useless here.

    Bolton has not only been ineffective, he has been counter-productive over and over. He has shown a preference for ideology over evidence -- the same neocon fallacy that made them susceptible to conmen like Chalabi -- and an inability to recognize it.

    The opposite of Bolton isn't liberal, it's being reality-based. Yes, Bush needs to appoint people who have some basis in reality for their thoughts.

    Not one of you lightweights can even address Bolton's actual positions and defend them.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 11:05 AM      BVBigBro
    Once again, I ask for a single reason to oppose Bolton.

    Secondly, I can only assume that now "liberal" is being defined as "reality based". In which case look forward to another defeat in 2008.
     
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 11:09 AM      JohnTant
    Tubino, you're cute. How is it not lightweight to just tack on convenient definitions to words in order to try and make an argument? Using your non-vacuous style, I could say "If by 'non-vacuous' you mean 'mired in Renfield-style one dimensional thinking and prone to cliched talking points with little to no substance,' then yeah Tubino is non-vacuous."

    So let's examine the non-vacuous nature of this rebuttal:

    If pointing out that someone like Bolton is an idiotic choice because he would be counterproductive EVEN FOR YOUR OWN GOALS is a "policy difference" for you, then you don't understand the language.


    You say Bolton would be counterproductive. Why? Because he has an opinion on how to get from A to B that differs from yours. What's the method one uses to get from A to B? Policy. So at the same time you're accusing me of not understanding English, you're validating my point by flat out saying your opposition to Bolton is driven by your opinion that he'd be counterproductive. How would he be counterproductive, in your opinion? Because he has particular ideas about what will work "in this century" that you dismiss as outdated thinking...in other words, policy differences.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 12:20 PM      tubino
    John,

    I'd like to say nice try, but... that wasn't.

    Back up for a second. I point out that all you do is pick the lightweight criticism, then declare it lightweight.

    You find it too hard to locate any actual positions, or criticisms.

    Your reaction? To declare that unless I point it out to you, it doesn't exist. If I don't take the time to educate you, then that must mean you're right.

    You continue to ignore that when Bolton wants to get from A to B, he makes up his own flawed map of reality and winds up in a ditch. Since you didn't get it the first time: opposing a record of failure is not a policy difference -- unless your preferred policy is wrecked-in-the-ditch failure.

    If you're serious rather than a hack, respond to any of the serious criticisms out there.

    If you say that's too hard for you, then you've proven my point.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 12:36 PM      tubino
    I take pity on you, and give you a way to focus.

    Why did Voinovich and Hagel take the positions they took yesterday regarding Bolton's hearing?  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:12 PM      kris
     
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:24 PM      Thinkingmonkey
    I think the real problem with Bolton isn't his anti-UN comments. We do need someone that can stand up to the UN to force it to reform or be swept on the ash heap of history. The real problem with Bolton is his personality and management style. It's very apparent this guy has serious anger management issues that go way beyond being an opinionated guy. Chasing a woman in a Moscow hotel throwing things at her? I expect that from a two year old, not a major ambassador.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:26 PM      kris
    1. Please cite some proof of this chasing a woman in Moscow story.

    2. You expect two-year olds to chase women through hotels while throwing things?  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:29 PM      JohnTant
    Tubino, your efforts to revise history here are admirable, but unfortunately doomes as the transcript is right there for everyone to read. You denounced my post as vacuous, and then lobbed your own vacuous criticism of the guy (called him a moron, in fact). When called on that, you backpedaled and said you were actually criticizing his policy stances by calling him an "outdated thinker" and accused me of missing that.

    I then pointed out I did not in fact miss it and quoted a sentence in my original piece that acknowledged that the opposition of Bolton was motivated by differences in opinion revolving around policy.

    You then said I was wrong since you were opposing Bolton because he would be counterproductive "EVEN FOR [MY] OWN GOALS," and therefore conceding what I acknowledged from the outset...that you disagree with how he wants to get from A to B: by definition a difference of opinion which revolves around policy. And as much as you complain about that not being grounded in policy differences, you continue to dig your rhetorical hole when you say things like:

    You continue to ignore that when Bolton wants to get from A to B, he makes up his own flawed map of reality and winds up in a ditch. Since you didn't get it the first time: opposing a record of failure is not a policy difference -- unless your preferred policy is wrecked-in-the-ditch failure.


    It's your *opinion* that it's a flawed map of reality...ie a policy difference. That you characterize something as "failure" does not automatically make it so. Your subjective reality does not directly translate to objective reality.

    Now, I never said it was "too hard" to find criticisms of Bolton (in fact, it's disturbingly easy, at least to find hysterical ones...). However, what seems to be hard is for you to present any which are germane. You went off on a rant about the EU, as if Bolton could do anything about that in the UN anyway (news to me the UN ambassadors set economic policy...). You brought up similar points about military spending and oil...again, things which are outside the milieu of the UN Ambassador. You ignored several calls from others in this thread to present anything relevant. Instead, you've shown you prefer to attack others in this thread instead of bothering to support your own position.

    You know, in doing reading I've found quite a bit that's been presented to the Senate Committee. And they revolve around issues of temperament (including the tidbit from the virulent Anti-Bushie which prompted absentee committee member Voinovich to suddenly have concerns...but which you declared vacuous anyway so it becomes irrelevant), issues of management and personal style (again, dismissed by you as vacuous), and a new one about how he handled maternity leave policies 17 years ago (by virtue of the second point, it is similarly vacuous). So what's left that could be "serious" by your standards that *isn't* grounded in policy differences?

    Quite a corner you've painted yourself into.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:30 PM      BVBigBro
    Thank you Tubino, for again failing to give a single reason for not approving Bolton. As I do not know the man, and no one can provide an example or reason of why he should not be approved, I'll suggest he should and will be approved.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:32 PM      james
    I am not partisan at all, I think that as President should be able to appoint whoever he wants. I am above all of this partisan bickering. However, I cannot support Bolton because it's been documented that he raped 17 yaks in Greenland, then had them extradited to Chile where they were dressed up as Augosto Pinochet and are currently serving a prison sentence on his behalf. You are all yakogynists for supporting him. typical republicans.

    Don't bother responding to me, you know I'm right. gtg, my half-caf-double-skim with cinnamon is ready, and the NYT has this really great article on how george bush is ruining the cucumber crop in brazil. You are all so blind.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:34 PM      Thinkingmonkey
    Folks where's there smoke - there's often a fire. When a Republican DOS staffer says Bolton has issues and numerous people say the guy has issues, is it really that hard to believe that he has anger management issues? Bolton is qualified for any number of positions in the administration. Being a diplomat is probably not one of them. There's a difference between having a strong opinion and not being able to control one's temper. Bolton has a long history of losing his temper, and then taking it out on subordinates.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:35 PM      james
    I believe that Thinkingmonkey has anger management issues. Anyone else agree? If so, looks like we'll have indisputable proof!  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:36 PM      JohnTant
    Kris, Sen Biden presented the text of a letter from a woman named Melody Townsel. Here's the AP report on it:

    "She's prepared to provide an affidavit. The letter she sent in, and I'm going to just take a second here, it says, "When I was dispatching a letter to [US] AID, my hell began. Mr. Bolton proceeded to chase me through the halls of a Russian hotel, throwing things at me, shoving threatening letters under my door, and genuinely behaving like a madman. I eventually retreated to my hotel room and stayed there. Mr. Bolton then routinely visited me to pound on the door and shout threats."


    Well, who is this Townsel? Turns out she's a self-described "very Liberal Democrat" and very passionately opposed to President Bush. Of course, since this incident happened in 2001, there wasn't really a good explanation why she didn't come forward when Bolton was nominated for his current post at State. She said she was "too busy" or something like that.

    The takeaway from this is Townsel is an extremely partisan Anti-Bushie...which is fine, that's her right and all of that. But let's not pretend she's some innocent who doesn't have an ulterior motive in this.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:41 PM      Thinkingmonkey
    So she's lying? She's probably not. I suggest you see what Colin Powell's chief of staff Lawrence Wilkerson, said about Bolton.

    "Lawrence Wilkerson, who was chief of staff to former Secretary of State Colin Powell, told The New York Times on Tuesday that Bolton would be "an abysmal ambassador."

    "He is incapable of listening to people and taking into account their views," Wilkerson told the newspaper."

    I think Bolton is better suited in a policy position at State rather than an ambassador. I suspect he lack the temperment and people management skills to really implement the Bush agenda at the UN.

    The president can be loyal to a fault. I think Bolton is ill suited to an ambasssadorship to the UN.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:44 PM      kris
    If he's "incapable of listening to people and taking into account their views" wouldn't he be unsuited to ANY position? I mean, what an extreme viewpoint. You're painting this guy as some kind of crackpot and then turning around and saying that "oh well, I'm not partisan, I'm sure he'll be good at SOME job, just not this one".  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:49 PM      BVBigBro
    "Incapable of listening to people and taking into account their views" makes one highly qualified for the role of "bad cop". I suspect ambassador to the UN will involve a lot of "bad cop".
     
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:50 PM      kris
    I wanna be the Ambassador to the UN...  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:50 PM      JohnTant
    I'm not calling Townsel a liar. I'm saying taking her account at face value is unwise, given her history and the lack of any corroboration or for that matter knowledge of Bolton's side of the story.

    As for Wilkerson, that's his opinion and he's entitled to it. But then don't we get to the whole question about why an ambassador is automatically required to be Mr. Nicey Nice? I think Bolton may be a big SOB who doesn't get very touchy-feely with his staff, but that's not necessarily a disqualifier from a leadership position. Call it the Gordon Gekko rule. ;)

    I have a feeling Mr. Wilkerson characterizes "taking into account their views" as "knuckling under to the demands of others." And I don't think that's the kind of guy we need in the UN right now.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:51 PM      Thinkingmonkey
    I am taking Wilkerson's comments with grain of salt. But a string of these sort events leads me to believe that his management style is not suited to ambassador work. Why is that so unbelievable? Frankly I think Bolton has got some pretty hefty credentials and yes I am saying I don't think he would make a good "ambassador." People have their different strengths. I didn't paint him as a crack pot. I didn't say anything of the sort. I think he has serious anger management issues which doesn't make him the best candidate. He will probably do a so so job of implementing the needed reform at the UN because it's difficult to get people to sign on to your agenda while screaming at them.
     
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:56 PM      Thinkingmonkey
    So when the corroboration of Townsel story comes out, you will simply discount that source? The Gordon Gekko rule heh? I seem to recall he went to jail at the end of the movie. I don't think an ambassador needs to be Mr. Nicey Nice. You can be strong without having anger management issues. The president himself is a perfect example of that type of leadership. Contrast the president's leadership style with Bolton's.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 1:56 PM      kris
    If you were thinking of hiring a person for a job, any job of ANY kind, and a credible reference said that he was "incapable of listening to people and taking into account their views" would you hire that person?

    Either Bolton is a major crackpot that has somehow managed to get into positions of more and more responsibility and get confirmed by the Senate, etc. OR these people are coming out of the woodwork to smear him now because they disagree with his policies.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 2:02 PM      Thinkingmonkey
    Kris are you even reading my posts? I suspect Wilkerson, stout Republican that he is has an agenda as well. I also don't think that he making up things out of whole cloth.

    If you take Wilkerson's statement at face value, no you wouldn't hire that person. Having managed several brilliant but angry guys in the past, I can tell you that you find the areas they are best suited. Bolton's previous work has been largely policy formation. He's got strong scholarly credentials and defends his opinions. That doesn't make him the best suited individual for the job.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 2:04 PM      kris
    Are you reading MY posts? My point is that Wilkerson's description of Bolton is so extreme that it, to me, renders it irrelevent. At best it's an opinion from someone with an ax to grind. At worst, it's a complete fabrication.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 2:08 PM      JohnTant
    The Gordon Gekko rule comes from the scene where he's talking to union leaders of Bluestar Airlines:

    Look, I have no illusions about winning a popularity contest with any of you. I was roasted the other night, and a friend of mine asked: why are we honoring this man? Have we run out of human beings?

    It's not always the most popular guy who gets the job done.


    Now, if Townsel suddenly gets a corroboration of her story about an incensed John Bolton throwing things at her in a Moscow hotel, shoving threatening letters under her door (where are those letters, I wonder...? Better call Mary Mapes with that story!), and so forth, I'd say I'd give that corroboration the attention it deserves. But having a self-described partisan come out with a convenient story at the last minute 10 years after the fact is a little too pat for me. Right now we have a She Said, without even a He Said to balance it out, let alone anything approaching proof.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 2:12 PM      Thinkingmonkey
    So Colin Powell's chief of staff is now lying. So everyone that has said that this guy has anger management issues is lying? Well if that's the case, he should be nominated. I suspect that he has got anger management issues because NO one runs up a string of encounters like this without having some issues. Wilkerson is a Republican. Not some random Democratic party hack. Let me ask you what do you feel is Bolton's strongest asset as an ambassador? I feel it's his healthy disdain for the UN. The question is whether or not Bolton's anger management issues will help or hinder the president's agenda in reforming the UN. I personally think that his issues with anger will hurt the president's agenda. I could be wrong.
     
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 3:34 PM      SmallTownHick
    The obvious problem that everybody seems to be missing is that this is an ambassadorial job. Mr. Bolton is going to be required to work with these people and maybe bring them around to his way of thinking. This is going to be very difficult for a man perceived as anti-UN. Perhaps the UN is in great need of reform. If so, Bush needs to send one of two types of people to UN headquarters. One is the head of a Marine regiment. That is not Bolton. The other possibility is a reconciliator, hailed by both sides for his fairness and honesty. Since his current reputation is only slightly worse than the reputation of the Grand Wizard of the KKK in Nigeria, I do not believe that he can carry off the role of reconciliator, either.  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 3:47 PM      BVBigBro
    Or Bush can send the bad cop to the UN. Then he can play good cop - bad cop.

    Grand wizard of the KKK in Nigeria? Isn't that senator Byrd?  
     
    #  April 20th, 2005 10:35 PM      david
    the obvious problem is that no one cares that they dont know anything. why the people who know what they're going to say before they hear the story are the loudest people is beyond me.  
     
    #  April 21st, 2005 12:12 AM      Daddy
    Didn't anybody call Bolton a walrus?

    Come on! Look at 'im!! That Walrus Bolton! It practically writes itself!

    I haven't followed that much of the story myself, but what I've seen of Bolton, I like. I like him for the same reason his critics hate him: he's gruff and straightforward.

    We have an appointee (Karen Hughes) whose job it is is to make us look good for the rest of the world (worst. grammar. ever.).

    I feel the UN needs to focus on the business of making the world community a better place, instead of being a meeting ground where a bunch of candy-asses play patty-cake.

    Candy-asses got us the Oil-for-Food scandal. Candy-asses brought us organized rape in Africa.

    Time for a change of pace....  
     
    #  April 21st, 2005 7:23 AM      JohnTant
    This should really be a post in and of itself, but since we've been talking about it here I thought it best to keep it all in one place. Anyway, there are more Bolton/Townsel/Russia developments.

    The head of IBTCI (which is the firm in question in the middle of Townsel's accusations), Jayant Kalotra, wrote a letter to the Foreign Relations Committee about the incident.

    Keep in mind that english is most likely not this guy's first language.

    Anyway, here's a quote:

    To the best of my knowledge, Ms. Townsel had limited contact with Mr. Bolton, who at the time she claims was hostile to her, was working on another project for IBTCI in Moscow (Healthy Russia 2000). Ms. Townsel's recollection of what transpired, ten years later, is impossible to square with the fact Mr. Bolton was not engaged by our firm to have any contact with her on any issue related to her activities in Kyrgyzstan. In fact, later Mr. Bolton became our legal counsel to represent our interests before the U.S. Government in response to Ms. Townsel's efforts to try to grab our contract. Her claims against Mr. Bolton make no sense but are consistent with her belligerent attitudes towards others.

    In fact, Ms. Townsel's professional performance is central to understanding her behavior and her extreme hostility to anyone associated with our company. As a Team Leader, she attempted unsuccessfully to charge the U.S. government for disallowable costs. She became enraged and abusive when our Business Manager, Auditor, and Executive Vice President each questioned these activities/costs, The situation was so serious that we had to post an expatriate from Head Office to our project office in Kyrgyzstan to ensure that proper accounts were maintained as we bad lost confidence in her business and billing practices.

    Her poor performance, treatment of other employees and attempt to take over our contract became issues; and thus I was required to step in and remove her from her position. Mr. Bolton's role with IBTCI was unrelated. to her activities at the time. At no time did we ask, or seek Mr. Bolton's intervention with her. I certainly did not hear, contemporaneously, from any other employee in Moscow that anything occurred between Mr. Bolton and Ms Townsel in Moscow, Consequently, it is difficult to understand how Ms. Townsel could make such accusations with any veracity.


    Rich Lowry of National Review gave the guy a call and reported back. He then followed up with the sub in question, and more interesting information followed.

    And one more followup, which yielded an interesting tidbit:

    Then, it came to light that she had written a letter to USAID urging that IBTCI lose its contract with the agency and her firm be hired instead. This caused great consternation at IBTCI.


    OK, so we have Townsel who is angling at getting some mad phat USAID money. She wants to get the contract shifted from then-prime IBTCI to her own firm. Suddenly we have an ulterior motive for the allegations.

    Now, in today's New York Times, we have a corroborator in Uno Ramat, who says:

    The new account that corroborated Ms. Townsel's complaints against Mr. Bolton was offered by Uno Ramat, who worked with her on an Agency for International Development project in Kyrgyzstan in 1994. Mr. Ramat said Mr. Bolton, who was then a lawyer representing Ms. Townsel's and Mr. Ramat's employer, International Business and Technical Consultants Inc., flew to Moscow to counter Ms. Townsel's complaints that the company was slow in providing cash to pay suppliers.

    "He was very intimidating and nasty," Mr. Ramat said in a telephone interview from Toronto. "He terrorized the office, he really did."

    Mr. Ramat also said he recalled a series of phone calls from Ms. Townsel, who was in Moscow, complaining of Mr. Bolton's behavior. He said she complained at the time, as she has in recent days, that Mr. Bolton followed her around the hotel, pounded on her door and threatened her.


    OK, so Bolton "followed her around the hotel, pounded on her door and threatened her." What was the allegation by Townsel:

    "When I was dispatching a letter to [US] AID, my hell began. Mr. Bolton proceeded to chase me through the halls of a Russian hotel, throwing things at me, shoving threatening letters under my door, and genuinely behaving like a madman. I eventually retreated to my hotel room and stayed there. Mr. Bolton then routinely visited me to pound on the door and shout threats."


    Mr. Ramat, no mention of threatening letters? Where are those letters?

    A senior officer of IBTCI doesn't seem to think Bolton and Townsel were in the hotel at the same time. And Townsel's boss said Townsel never said anything about that incident to him even as she was complaining about more minor things. Yet she complained to Ramat?

    All in all, a rather curious story.

    As a fun aside, let's take the claims at face value. How fun would it be for our ambassador to follow Kofi Annan around New York and pound on his apartment door, Sam Kinison style? "Annan, better give us answers about Oil for Food, you dork!!!! You're a crook. SAY IT! SAY IIIIIIITTTTTTT!!!!!"  
     
    #  April 21st, 2005 2:06 PM      blaster
    You say that the opposition to Bolton's nomination comes down to basically the fact that he is a conservative.

    Let me get this straight. Because if that's true then conservatives are bullys, arrogant, liars, petty, act unprofessionally, and are hypocrites. Because it seems about impossible to turn around these days without finding another person, many of them very reputable (like former ambassadors) that basically accuse Mr. Bolton of one or more of these characteristics. Not to mention the fact that jerks like Mr. Bolton make poor diplomats. And if he is being accused of such things simply because he is a conservative, well....

    Are you a "conservative" John?  
     
    #  April 21st, 2005 2:29 PM      JohnTant
    Cart. Horse.

    Cause. Effect.

    Before. After.

    Three examples of the concept your comment is missing, Blaster.  
     
    #  April 21st, 2005 2:52 PM      Laura
    blaster, that's a pretty astonishing leap of logic you made there... I'm just not seeing how John's assertion that Bolton's treatment from Congressional Dems is politically motivated proves anything about conservatives as a group or even Bolton in particular.

    Now, if he had alleged that there was a vast, left wing conspiracy, that'd be different. ;-)  
     
    #  April 21st, 2005 9:12 PM      tubino
    John Tant, you still exhibit serious deficiencies in reading.

    When someone is too weak, lazy or cowardly to address the serious criticisms, and only responds to the goofiest ones (of Bolton), then that someone is a hack.

    Over and over again you pretend to be serious, while not bothering to actually address any of the serious criticisms of Bolton. All you can do is pick silly fights, and appear not to grasp the obvious.

    Ergo, you are a pretentious hack.

    Bolton is now apparently a liar too. Read here.

    And all you can say is, well, all the criticisms boil down to him being a conservative.

    You're a silly hack.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 7:03 AM      JohnTant
    Tubino:

    When someone is too weak, lazy or cowardly to address the serious criticisms, and only responds to the goofiest ones (of Bolton), then that someone is a hack.


    Curious criticism coming from someone who, in this thread, has repeatedly ignored requests to offer substantial and specific criticism of the guy. Instead all you've given us are vague "outdated thinking" complaints. Not surprising, considering your history here.

    Frankly, if you want me to address "serious" criticisms, they need to be brought up. I'm not going to do your research for you.

    Over and over again you pretend to be serious, while not bothering to actually address any of the serious criticisms of Bolton. All you can do is pick silly fights, and appear not to grasp the obvious.


    "Pick silly fights?" Um, who was the very first guy to come in here and toss insults? Why, that would be you, Tubino! Post number 3, in fact, and true to form based on your history here. Gonna call us all "boneheads" again?

    Ergo, you are a pretentious hack.


    Who the hell says "ergo" while complaining about someone being "pretentious?"

    Bolton is now apparently a liar too. Read here.


    Because apparently, the only person who can possibly be "lying" is John Bolton. Groan.

    You don't think Hubbard said something nice to Bolton just to be polite, and maybe groused behind his back (or magically started grousing right after the North Koreans called Bolton "human scum" as a CYA maneuver)? Occam would agree. And for Bolton to be a liar, Hubbard would have had to tell Bolton about his criticisms...something that you can't conclude from the story (where did Hubbard's "specific objection" even get mentioned to Bolton....show me the statement in the CBS News story you linked, assuming Mary Mapes doesn't get it in there first.).

    Besides, if the North Koreans don't like one of our guys I kind of take that as an endorsement. I like a guy who has our interests at heart, not Kim Jong Il's, and who isn't afraid to talk straight.

    And all you can say is, well, all the criticisms boil down to him being a conservative.

    Well, to be clear I've said that what's been presented that is "non-vacuous" (according to you, in fact) seems that way, yes. You haven't presented anything to refute that. You've dismissed criticisms of his temperament and his style (and refutations of same) as vacuous and lightweight, so again...what's left? What's funny is while you continue to deny that criticisms are grounded in policy disputes, you keep presenting criticisms that, well, revolve around policy disputes. The very story you link, in fact, comes down to yet another policy dispute.

    You're a silly hack.


    Wow, from the guy complaining about someone picking a fight.

    You know, these personal attacks are getting old. I think we've been pretty patient with you since you started in with the attitude on Wednesday. I've pretty much let it slide because it says more about you than it does about me or anyone else. But I'd suggest abandoning that rhetoric in favor of something more flattering to your increasingly discredited reputation here...because the expiration date on the tolerance is rapidly approaching.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 11:27 AM      tubino
    John Tant exhibits startling density with these words:

    "Frankly, if you want me to address "serious" criticisms, they need to be brought up. I'm not going to do your research for you."

    Okay, try to comprehend this:

    It's your blog. You brought up Bolton. You defended Bolton, claiming all criticism was ill-founded. You claim this without actually acknowledging existence of valid criticisms, despite mounting evidence, and qualms voiced by CONSERVATIVES in the Repub party.

    So now you expect everyone else to do the research on YOUR topic, to refute YOUR baseless claim.

    All you've done is shown that you are trying to defend Bolton for no apparent reason except that you think he's a conservative. Not a shred of evidence, not any apparent awareness of a single quote or position.

    And even though you can find serious criticism easily, you claim (once), it's still just too GOSH DARN HARD for you to actually inform yourself on YOUR OWN POSITION.

    Instead, that's MY responsibility. Shya right.

    You are a silly small hack. If you want to defend Bolton, you don't do it by saying, "I'm defending this guy until you inform me as to his real position and policy. Until then, the label conservative is enough for me."

    You exhibit the same weakness you accuse in others.

    And you are apparently unaware that what I wrote about the role of the US in the 21st century is not unrelated to Bolton, it was a direct response to his most-quoted positions!!! So you are so ill-informed as not to even recognize it, and so can't address my point about Bolton as an outdated thinker. That's serious criticism, and you couldn't even connect the dots to respond.

    Basta.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 11:31 AM      james
    tubino, i'd love to see a post from you without a personal attack in it.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 11:43 AM      tubino
    John Tant,

    I'll make it REALLY EASY for you. So very easy!

    What is your take on Colin Powell's criticism of Bolton?

    Still too hard?

    Okay, easier: Bolton believes the US is the sole superpower, and should throw its weight around much more. Yet the US is being surpassed economically by the EU as well as by Asian markets, has failed spectacularly to assert its will with several countries since 2000, and is facing long-term military personnel challenges because of the neocon/Bolton failure to recognize the reality of the situation in Iraq. Doesn't this mean Bolton is out of touch with the 21st century? Don't we need a reality-based ambassador?

    Not up to it? Okay, let's take your own case of North Korea. How has Bolton's approach been anything but counter-productive, unless your idea of success is a publicly-announced nuclear capability by N. Korea???

    C'mon big guy, let's see if you can actually address ANY ONE THING about Bolton.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 12:18 PM      james
    tubino, if you're going to be a dick i'll ban you. it's your last warning
     
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 12:36 PM      JohnTant
    Tubino:

    It's your blog. You brought up Bolton. You defended Bolton, claiming all criticism was ill-founded. You claim this without actually acknowledging existence of valid criticisms, despite mounting evidence, and qualms voiced by CONSERVATIVES in the Repub party.

    So now you expect everyone else to do the research on YOUR topic, to refute YOUR baseless claim.


    You are the guy saying he shouldn't be confirmed.

    The onus is on you to present a case. You didn't. Instead you've offered vague talking points about irrelevancies while blanketing them in personal attacks.

    Oh, and I don't know what planet you're from, but Powell, Voinovich, Wilkerson, et al have many descriptors...but I wouldn't consider "conservative" among them. As has been hashed out repeatedly in these pages, an (R) next to your name doesn't confer conservatism.

    So you are so ill-informed as not to even recognize it, and so can't address my point about Bolton as an outdated thinker. That's serious criticism, and you couldn't even connect the dots to respond.

    Just because YOU THINK something is relevant or serious does not make it so.

    And coming from the guy who is complaining about me saying opposition to Bolton boils down to policy opinions, this is yet another validation of my point. You can assert he's an "outdated thinker" all you want, and every time you do you'll continue to prove my point...opposition is motivated by Bolton being a conservative. Pity the Senate hearings can't be honest about it.

    Bolton believes the US is the sole superpower, and should throw its weight around much more.


    Well, let's look at that. Bolton believes the US is the sole superpower. I guess you're getting that from this statement:
    There is no United Nations. There is an international community that occasionally can be led by the only real power left in the world — and that’s the United States — when it suits our interests, and when we can get others to go along...

    This kind of mindless creation of the United Nations as something different from what it’s in the United States’ interest to do isn’t going to sell here or anywhere else.

    So Bolton is outdated because he believes that there are these things called "states" and the UN is nothing more than a collection of states? That states act according to their interests, and in the final analysis their effectiveness is determined by the power of a given state along with how many other states it can persuade to go along? That he says the UN is nothing but a big building where these states get together and talk? An organization that has nothing to it other than what is voluntarily granted to it by its members? It's hard to call that outdated...it's more like finally looking at the UN realistically.

    But all of a sudden the UN has taken on a kind of sacred cow status. It's being given the aura of inherent power even though it has nothing of the kind. And Bolton is flat out saying it. But that doesn't seem to be proper for the Bolton Inquisitors. They'd apparently prefer that his focus be in perpetuating a myth and serve the UN, not serve the US *in* the UN. So I guess that's why we get this bit of arrogance:

    [T]he nature of the new world system [] was not so different from the old. It was for the moment more stable, but a reasonable forecast would be that Africa in particular had a century of border wars ahead of it. On the other hand, such was the power of the anticolonial idea that great powers from outside a region had relatively little influence unless they were prepared to use force. China altogether backed Fretilin in Timor, and lost. In Spanish Sahara, Russia just as completely backed Algeria, and its front, known as Polisario, and lost. In both instances the United States wished things to turn out as they did, and worked to bring this about. The Department of State desired that the United Nations prove utterly ineffective in whatever measures it undertook. This task was given to me, and I carried it forward with not inconsiderable success.


    Oh, ooops. That wasn't John Bolton. That was Daniel Patrick Moynihan, former UN Ambassador. My Bad.

    Yet the US is being surpassed economically by the EU as well as by Asian markets, has failed spectacularly to assert its will with several countries since 2000, and is facing long-term military personnel challenges because of the neocon/Bolton failure to recognize the reality of the situation in Iraq. Doesn't this mean Bolton is out of touch with the 21st century? Don't we need a reality-based ambassador?

    Well, I'd say a healthy part of "reality" would include recognizing that the EU doesn't have to pay for much of their own security. Funny how having Americans foot the bill for Europe's protection helps them foot unemployment benefits for their 9.1% unemployment rate.

    Also, make up your mind. If you're complaining that the US "has failed spectacularly to assert its will with several countries since 2000" (curious cutoff...what were we doing with China before then?), then having a guy willing to assert will makes sense. Bolton is that guy.

    However, all of this ignores a more basic question...what does an undersecretary of State and nominee as the UN Ambassador have to do with US economic policies as they relate to the rest of the world, or military staffing for that matter? There are only so many times you can revisit the Iraq debate without looking silly.

    What is your take on Colin Powell's criticism of Bolton?

    My take is that John Bolton has served effectively in State as a vocal proponent of President Bush's strategies, thereby forcing Powell to follow Bush's policies more closely than he would have liked. Bolton routinely rode circles around Foreign Service which made lots of people look bad...and now they're looking for payback.

    Okay, let's take your own case of North Korea.

    Well, actually you're the one that brought it up with your CBS News cite...
    How has Bolton's approach been anything but counter-productive, unless your idea of success is a publicly-announced nuclear capability by N. Korea???

    How is NK finally being honest about their nukes a bad thing? Well, I guess if you look at the timeline and see under which Administration they got the ability, you could consider it a liability...of embarassment, if nothing else. And what, we have to spare Kim Jong Il's feelings? Why? If we're going to look at a dictatorial looney like that guy and not even have the fortitude to call a spade a spade, then expecting the US to "assert our will" becomes unrealistic.

    But it's curious...you label the announcement of NK as having nukes a bad thing, but NOT NK ACTUALLY HAVING THE NUKES. Very odd.

    Finally, tubino I really think you should can the condescension. You are not Craig from The Apprentice.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 1:22 PM      tubino
    Hi,

    Okay, no more condescension.

    You dismiss Hubbard's point without noting that more than 60 retired U.S. diplomats joined Lugar in a letter opposing Bolton's confirmation. I think Hubbard's claim that Bolton's speech was NOT cleared is much more plausible than Bolton's claim. It would be shocking if Bolton's speech WERE cleared. If it were cleared, there would be a paper trail. That he was a loose cannon makes lots more sense.

    You make this odd claim:

    "You are the guy saying he shouldn't be confirmed. "

    Uh, no. Not at all. If you read what you wrote, you claim that all the criticism seems to boil down to him being "conservative".

    What I claimed was that that is not an intellectually honest position, as it simply ignores all the serious criticism.

    I've said this s few times, but will try again. If you say there is no valid criticism, you need to address the best there is. You didn't. You addressed the silly MSM as if that's the best there is. It is a common trick, to look for the weaksest. Serious commenters take on the best arguments to make their case.

    I only commented on your commentary as a weak approach, not a serious one.

    You say, "The onus is on you to present a case."

    Well that's backwards, isn't it. But let's try it. So if I make a silly argument (Silly argument exaggerated: "I don't understand all this criticism of Hitler. It seems to boil down to his failure as an artist, his mustache, or this socialist thing."), then apparently it's not enough for you to say, "That's silly. YOu act as though your selection of weak criticisms is representative." Somehow I would be right in saying, as you do, the onus is on YOU to prove otherwise???

    No no no. You made the argument about Bolton criticism, and now you're running from your own "conservative" claim.

    Give me a break.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 1:43 PM      tubino
    Hi, no personal attacks here.

    You ask, "How is NK finally being honest about their nukes a bad thing?"

    I thought that was clear. When a country (India, Pakistan, Iran, whatever) reaches the point where it can defiantly say, "We have nuclear weapons," it is a challenge. NK feels that with the Bush admin, it can answer Bolton by trumping him. It appears that it will get away with it, and Bolton and the neocons have another startling failure to their credit.

    If you read the PNAC manifesto from 1998, you see that the necons are achieving the opposite of their goals for the US role in the 21st century. They want to go from A to B, and instead have moved us the other way (minus B?). The danger of a John Bolton (and many other neocons) is that he is too pig-headed to recognize his own failures, let alone learn from them.

    What kind of ambassador would he be, when 60 others ON OUR SIDE write a letter to oppose him?

    But hey, even with all this out there, your take is that, near as you can tell, the opposition is that he's a conservative. Or maybe it's his haircut.

    At best, that's not an intellectually honest position.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 1:46 PM      tubino
    When was Moynihan's comment made? What makes you think Moynihan is himself not an outdated, 20th century thinker?

    Lots of folks haven't accepted the reality of the US position in the 21st century. That doesn't mean we want one as ambassador to the UN.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 2:10 PM      BVBigBro
    To be factual, the case for North Korea having nuclear weapons consists of nothing. The case for North Korea having a deliverable nuclear weapon consists of nothing.

    The Bush administrations policy towards North Korea appears to be to ignore them. I support that policy. Why should we negotiate with North Korea? They have nothing we want.

    Secondly, everyone can stop referring to Europe and Asia as if they unified entities. They are not. They are continents of many countries having very divergent interests.

    Finally, regardless of anyone's policy preferences, The U.S. is the world's only superpower; there is no second.

     
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 2:20 PM      JohnTant
    You dismiss Hubbard's point without noting that more than 60 retired U.S. diplomats joined Lugar in a letter opposing Bolton's confirmation. I think Hubbard's claim that Bolton's speech was NOT cleared is much more plausible than Bolton's claim. It would be shocking if Bolton's speech WERE cleared. If it were cleared, there would be a paper trail. That he was a loose cannon makes lots more sense.

    You accused Bolton of being a liar.

    To support that accusation, you pointed to a CBS News story. But nowhere in that story is the claim supported. In fact, from digging it's quite clear opposition to Bolton's speech came about after the North Koreans called him "human scum" and said they didn't want him at the Beijing talks. And you are now accusing Bolton of giving an uncleared speech, something for which you have no evidence other than a vague he said/she said (what, Hubbard's the only guy in State who can clear a speech?). And I don't care how many diplomats sign some letter. I could find thousands of people willing to sign a letter saying the Earth is flat. That doesn't make it factually correct.

    You make this odd claim:

    "You are the guy saying he shouldn't be confirmed. "

    Uh, no. Not at all. If you read what you wrote, you claim that all the criticism seems to boil down to him being "conservative".


    Really? So when you say "[Bolton]'s the wrong choice" or "Bolton is an idiotic choice" you really AREN'T saying he shouldn't be confirmed, but rather pointing out that I'm ignoring "serious criticism?"

    I've said this s few times, but will try again. If you say there is no valid criticism, you need to address the best there is. You didn't. You addressed the silly MSM as if that's the best there is. It is a common trick, to look for the weaksest. Serious commenters take on the best arguments to make their case.

    Where did I say there was "no valid criticism?"

    I'd love to take on arguments worthy enough that a US Senator would present them. But Tailgunner Joe Biden hasn't presented any. If they'd ask him about his stances on the ICC, for instance, then it might be interesting. But they haven't. Instead the Committee seems happy to oppose Bolton because he's conservative and are using accusations of his bullying nature as an excuse. That's what I'm addressing.

    And incidentally...if we're such "boneheads," "lightweights," and whatever else...why are you wasting your non-vacuous time here?

    I only commented on your commentary as a weak approach, not a serious one.

    And in doing so, did not present any "serious" arguments. Instead you lobbed personal attacks.

    You say, "The onus is on you to present a case."

    Well that's backwards, isn't it. But let's try it. So if I make a silly argument (Silly argument exaggerated: "I don't understand all this criticism of Hitler. It seems to boil down to his failure as an artist, his mustache, or this socialist thing."), then apparently it's not enough for you to say, "That's silly. YOu act as though your selection of weak criticisms is representative." Somehow I would be right in saying, as you do, the onus is on YOU to prove otherwise???

    Backwards?

    You came on here saying Bolton shouldn't be confirmed. Several people asked "why?" You ignored them.

    You seem to be upset that I didn't scour the Internet for criticisms that you would consider serious. But how can I know what you consider serious unless you bring them up? Divination? So at the end of the day, you want me to address serious arguments which support your opinion, but you want me to go and find those arguments IN ADDITION to making my own. Sorry, but I'm not going to argue both sides. If you have a point that supports your opinion, it's your responsibility to lodge it. Not mine.

    No no no. You made the argument about Bolton criticism, and now you're running from your own "conservative" claim.

    I'm not running from anything. In fact, I'm even more convinced that opposition to Bolton is grounded in his conservatism, with "concerns" about his character being trumped up so as to avoid a debate on the nature of the UN.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 2:23 PM      tubino
    BVVV opines, "Secondly, everyone can stop referring to Europe and Asia as if they unified entities."

    See, I just told you that not everyone was ready for the 21st century.

    The EU has muscles to flex. Ask GE's Jack Welch, who learned the hard way that the EU could dictate to a US CEO about his products. Microsoft has learned too. The EU has more in common than a currency. A centralized budget means it has control to begin paying for its own defense -- and may do that gradually over the next 50 years. What someone above called Europe's weakness (letting the US spend wildly on military) may convert to an independence from the US that is much more serious from the US POV.

    Bolton and Rumsfeld don't get it.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 2:28 PM      JohnTant
    thought that was clear. When a country (India, Pakistan, Iran, whatever) reaches the point where it can defiantly say, "We have nuclear weapons," it is a challenge. NK feels that with the Bush admin, it can answer Bolton by trumping him. It appears that it will get away with it, and Bolton and the neocons have another startling failure to their credit.

    First, you calling Bolton a neocon is hysterical in and of itself.

    Second, how can NK nukes be a failure of THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION?!? I'm sorry...which SecState was feted by Kim Jong Il?!?

    Having NK publicly admit a treaty violation is actually a good thing, in my opinion. And their admission that they have nukes is just that.

    If you read the PNAC manifesto from 1998, you see that the necons are achieving the opposite of their goals for the US role in the 21st century. They want to go from A to B, and instead have moved us the other way (minus B?). The danger of a John Bolton (and many other neocons) is that he is too pig-headed to recognize his own failures, let alone learn from them.

    What kind of ambassador would he be, when 60 others ON OUR SIDE write a letter to oppose him?

    But hey, even with all this out there, your take is that, near as you can tell, the opposition is that he's a conservative. Or maybe it's his haircut.

    At best, that's not an intellectually honest position.

    You contradict yourself. Again.

    On the one hand you call Bolton a neoconservative (I'm still laughing at that, by the way). You then start saying neoconservatism is some kind of cogent movement, another assertion at which I chuckle mightily (some movement....when no one can agree what neoconservatism actually is, even so called neocons).

    But you then take some "manifesto" and declare that Bolton has not achieved it. In other words, you're saying they haven't achieve the goal you think they should have achieved. A policy difference. And from that you say opposition is not grounded in his conservatism.

    As for the magical 60, you wrote earlier:

    [The US]has failed spectacularly to assert its will with several countries since 2000...

    I wonder how many of those 60 bear any responsibility for that "failure?" And if they are...how can their opinion of Bolton have any merit? They're part of the failure.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 2:32 PM      JohnTant
    When was Moynihan's comment made? What makes you think Moynihan is himself not an outdated, 20th century thinker?

    Follow the link.

    First Bolton is in left field, and now Moynihan is also an outdated thinker? How many more people are you planning on positioning there?

    I'd think you'd want to actually internalize what Moynihan (and Bolton) was saying about the UN and the nature of states before dismissing them as outdated thinkers. It isn't outdated thinking to recognize that the UN has no inherent power, but rather only what states are willing to cede to it.

    Lots of folks haven't accepted the reality of the US position in the 21st century. That doesn't mean we want one as ambassador to the UN.

    The reality of the situation is that the UN has only as much power over the US as we're willing to give them. And having an ambassador there who recognizes that is actually VERY desireable.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 2:38 PM      tubino
    John Tant, you still haven't even pretended to address the one and only point I started with and keep repeating: you are being dishonest if you pretend that addressing the haircut-and-anger criticism proves your point about the conservative label. YOu still dodge.

    Instead you dig yourself in even deeper with this:

    "On the one hand [snip] (some movement....when no one can agree what neoconservatism actually is, even so called neocons).

    But you then take some "manifesto" and declare that Bolton has not achieved it."

    Well, there really is a manifesto for the Project for the New American Century. They have a webstite. Look at the names: Cheney, Perle, Wolfowitz, etc. They actually wrote their ideas into a plan for the 21st century, in 1998. Look it up. It's not a conspiracy theory, it's THEIR POLICY.

    Whether you think Bolton fits in there or not is kind of irrelevant. Either he is out of step with the admin, or he is in step with the neocon failure. What is clear, though, is that Bolton's insistence that ideology trumps all facts makes him a spiritual sister to the Wolfowitz-Feith neocon crowd.

    You can nitpick all you want, but the break between previous conservative movements is all clear in the manifesto, and in their actions, and Bolton is completely consistent with them in insisting on a more active US role abroad. ON this point there is a consistent, definable, documented, self-proclaimed unity behind the neocon label.

    Again, my error is in assuming this is all recognized by commenters like yourself. It's hardly controversial.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 2:39 PM      JohnTant
    See, I just told you that not everyone was ready for the 21st century.

    You're lapsing into condescension again...

    The EU has muscles to flex. Ask GE's Jack Welch, who learned the hard way that the EU could dictate to a US CEO about his products. Microsoft has learned too. The EU has more in common than a currency. A centralized budget means it has control to begin paying for its own defense -- and may do that gradually over the next 50 years. What someone above called Europe's weakness (letting the US spend wildly on military) may convert to an independence from the US that is much more serious from the US POV.

    Well, I never said the EU not paying their own way for defense was a weakness for THEM...it is a weakness in YOUR argument. You want to toss out economic statistics, fine. But it's easy to have lots of butter when someone is buying your guns for you.

    But OK, let's look at it as a weakness. How many aircraft carriers does the EU have? How many of them work? And you assume we'll continue paying for their defense over the next 50 years. Already we've made noises about moving our bases out of Germany. The defense pact is based on us being allies with Europe...but when they start acting at cross purposes with us, that pact goes into the ash heap of history. It's harder for a state to assert their own will when the only mechanism available is to give your enemies tribute.

    Or immigration policies? The Middle East is sending immigrants to EU countries so fast that their culture is becoming overwhelmed. Old guard Europeans are having fewer and fewer kids, and the slack is being taken up by immigrants. In 50 years I'm not convinced Europe will at all resemble what it is today. Sheer demographics support that opinion.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 2:43 PM      BVBigBro
    Of course the EU is not powerless, but it remains a military mouse. There is no reason to expect that to change in my lifetime. Asia remains a highly divided continent, and also has little military capability.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 2:46 PM      tubino
    John Tant,

    First, you're still not admitting the flaw in your post about the Bolton criticisms. You still think it's just fine to post a defense agsinst the weakest criticisms, and leave it for others to point it out.

    But on the diplomats and failure, you still don't get it. During Bush's tenure, the US has lost influence to an alarming degree: politically, diplomatically, economically, and militarily. The US couldn't even get Turkey to agree to modest demands before the Iraq invasion, but the examples abound.

    What you fail to recognize is that those 60 ambassadors were part of the successful era. The Bolton POV is intimately tied with the failures listed above.

    What you also fail to recognize is that in the 21st century, the US is increasingly NOT in the superpower position for world trade and many other important issues. And increasingly, people like you and I have little or no say as to how much power the US admin turns over to int'l bodies through trade agreements. It has already happened, and the WTO riots in Seattle were a symptom of discontent.

    Bolton helps guys like you continue the superpower fantasy when the expiration date is either passed or approaching.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 2:53 PM      tubino
    John says, " And you assume we'll continue paying for their defense over the next 50 years"

    Nope, you made that up. (The opposite is true.)

    The reality is that a fairly strong contingent in the EU is laying groundwork for building their own military. And when the Bush deficits ($300B interest/year) are pulling the US down, the EU will be getting stronger and stronger.

    Why does the EU want a military? In order to defend its interests -- against the US. They have said so, quite openly.

    You're right, in 50 years EU will be very different. So will the US. By then, your superpower line will be greeted with laughter. The neocon failures now, and the failure to recognize the failures (BOLTON!!!) are ensuring that.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 3:01 PM      BVBigBro
    The EU has no military. It has a collection of independently controlled militaries. The EU has only the interests its' individual members can agree upon. A large German military isn't one of them. The individual members of the EU are so far behind the US militarily that if they double their collective spending for the next 25 years they will still be behind us.  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 7:03 PM      tubino
    BVBigBro,

    You miss the point on the EU entirely. There is a small but growing group that thinks an EU military is the only way to counterbalance the US. In 20 years the situation could look quite different.

    More Republican opposition to Bolton. Still waiting for John Tant to explain why these Repubs oppose Bolton for Bolton's conservatism????  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 7:03 PM      Daddy
    Anybody get the feeling tubino is trying to filibuster Bolton? ;)  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 7:23 PM      james
    hahaha  
     
    #  April 22nd, 2005 8:18 PM      BVBigBro
    No tubino, you miss the point. Any attempt by one EU member to significantly increase its own military firstly threatens the other EU members and Russia, not the US. For that reason alone it won't happen without the breakup of the EU.  
     
    #  April 23rd, 2005 12:35 AM      tubino
    BVBigBro,

    I don't understand how you fail to grasp that the EU is already a functioning body with revenue and spending as a whole. There is no reason that it couldn't begin to spend on defense, and over time build up a significant military capability, AS THE E.U. And I didn't make up the military part - it's already being discussed IN THE E.U.

    Your point about a single EU member's military is irrelevant. That's not how it works anymore.

    21st century -- 5 years in.  
     
    #  April 23rd, 2005 7:13 AM      BVBigBro
    Yes, that is how it works. That's why France has a separate military. That's why England has a separate military. That's why Italy has a separate military. None of them is willing to give up their own defense capabilities or their own defense interests, which include defending against each other. In the end each of them prefers a large US military on the other side of the ocean to a large German or French military on their own border. 21st century 5 years in - nothing new.  
     
    #  April 23rd, 2005 9:50 AM      BrianH
    tubino,

    Can you point to anything to back up your claim that the EU is building a unified military? Is this buried in that 200 page constitution that the EU members all seem to be voting against? I don't doubt that some people have talked about it, but is anything actually being done?

    I know for a fact that all the countries have their own militaries. The only combined militaries I know of are NATO and the UN, both of which tend to have large US participation. These hardly back up your claim that the EU is building a joint military to thwart the US.
     
     
    #  April 23rd, 2005 7:01 PM      tubino
    I'm not claiming that the EU is now building its own military. I said that the idea is beginning to take hold, though I'm sure a LOT of people would have die of old age before it could really catch on. But ... a lot of people (who would oppose it) WILL die of old age in the coming years.

    You can read one take on the idea in TR Reid's United States of Europe.

    John Bolton did not write the foreword. Heh.  
     
    #  April 23rd, 2005 7:03 PM      tubino
    Anyone get the idea that no one is really interested in defending Bolton's failures anymore?

     
     

     

     


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