We’ve reached the second rest day and the general classification is for all practical purposes over. Barring a crash or severe illness, Lance Armstrong will win the tour again. How did it happen? I think this year’s Tour was almost solely the result of Armstrong himself. In some past years particularly in 2003, his team won it with him. This year the Discovery team was noticeably weaker than in years past, allowing Armstrong to be isolated on several occasions, and not controlling the tempo on every climb, but it didn’t matter. After the team time trial, all Armstrong needed was the occasional water bottle. The first climb in the Alps, Stage 10, did the damage and it was largely the result of Armstrong himself, with help from Mancebo, Valverde and Rasmussen. Watch this stage on replay and look at the pace of the climb and the looks on all the riders’ faces. This was an all out effort by Armstrong that took everything he had, but paid off. In the Pyrenees, there were attacks, and there was strategy, but the riders looked tired for the most part, and Armstrong was easily able to counter the moves even when he had little support.

Stage 15 featured a win by American George Hincapie on the Tour’s toughest stage, but he did it without working in the breakaway and then passing Oscar Pereiro in the last kilometer, which is legal, but considered bad form.

Additionally, Michael Rasmussen gained enough climbing points to all but assure himself of winning the polka dot jersey for the best climber, and with Valverde’s abandon, Popovych will almost certainly win the white jersey as the best young rider.

So what’s left? Today’s stage features an HC climb, but it is a long way from the finish. You may see some of the higher placed riders try to drop each other on the climb as they fight for places 2 through 10, but expect Discovery to just protect Armstrong successfully. After that, it will largely be flat stages that determine the green jersey winner. With Tom Boonen having abandoned, this is now a battle between Thor Hushovd, Stuart O’Grady and Robbie McEwen. Hushovd has the lead, and O’Grady is second, But I think McEwen is strong enough to overtake them and collect the jersey. This one could very well be decided on the Champs Ellysees, and given McEwen’s demeanor on the bike could make the final stage exciting to watch.

For the riders racing for second overall, the race will come down to the final time trial on Stage 20. I keep hearing and reading this stage described as flat, but in reality it has 2800 feet of climbing in only 55km, with two significant climbs and one very technical descent. I can’t imagine Armstrong losing significant time on the stage, but I don’t think the stage necessarily favors the traditional time trial specialists. Only the top riders on the GC, and anyone else who thinks they can win the stage, will be motivated to ride hard, and I think any one of them could win it. The climbing should reduce the speed and favor both the climbers and the less aerodynamic riders like Basso. Basso really suffered in last years’ long time trial and lost time as the stage progressed. Ullrich is also not the best descender that ever lived, so he could have some trouble here. Rasmussen is a poor time trialist, but he should be motivated now, and it will be interesting to see if he can hold off the others for a spot on the podium when it matters. Mancebo is also not a great time trialist, but given the nature of the stage, and with two poor time trialists, Basso and Rasmussen, within reach, he could squeak by for a spot in the top three. It will be interesting to see what kind of bike setup people choose on this stage. The specialized time trial bikes are more aerodynamic, but are also heavier and do not handle as well as a standard road bike. Given the amount of climbing, and the technical descent, we could see some people give it a try on a standard bike with some clip on time trial bars and without the disc wheels. Any of places 2 through 8 could change hands on this stage. We’ll see.

So that’s the update for now, I’ll be back at the end to talk about the race, look forward to the rest of the race season, and talk about what to watch for bike racing in the future.

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