May 05, 2006

Picking a Kentucky Derby winner is a daunting task. I've picked one exactly twice in my life. So this year, instead of just giving you a name, I'm going to try to guide you through an easy process to pick your own winner. Ready? And we're off!

Question 1
Is there an exceptional horse in the race? Because the Derby usually has a large field, racing luck and pace tend to make the race. A truly exceptional horse, however, tends to make its own luck. If you think there's a potential Triple Crown winner in the field, pick him and skip to the end. If not, move on to question 2.

This year, I think the answer is a clear "no". So on we go.

Question 2
Are there fewer than 14 horses in the field? If so, then you can rely on what happened in the Derby preps to guide your pick. Races with fewer horses tend to have a more reasonable pace and predictable results. If the field isn't full, look to one of the winners of the big prep races (Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes, Florida Derby).

This year, 20 horses are going to be in the starting gate, so it's on to question 3.

Question 3
How fast will the pace be? As Paula Abdul would say, this is "key important". Check out the running styles of the field. If there's a ton of horses in the race that all like to be 4th or 5th throughout the race, then they all might plod around in the early part of the race, meaning that one of them will outkick the others for the win OR that a frontrunner might get loose on the lead and win. This is not a common scenario. More likely is the field with a few speedballs. They'll ensure a swift pace and cause those horses who want to be comfortable sitting off the lead to go faster than they want. This pace scenario usually results in a come-from-behind horse winning.

So, to review, fewer speed horses mean the race sets up for stalkers OR for a lone speed horse. Lots of speed horses mean that the winner will most likely come from way off the pace.

This year, there is plenty of speed as horses like Sinister Minister, Keyed Entry and Lawyer Ron will tear out of the gate and set a torrid pace. Because of this, I'm going to narrow my possible choices to horses that come from behind or who have shown the ability to lay off the pace. From a field of 20, I'm now down to the following: Barbaro, A.P. Warrior, Bluegrass Cat, Steppenwolfer, Point Determined, Cause To Believe, Storm Treasure, Jazil & Seaside Retreat.

Question 4
Will it rain? On some tracks, it doesn't seem to matter if it's muddy. At Churchill Downs (the home of the Derby) it does matter. It's the track comes up wet, look for horses with some history of success in the mud. Extra bonus points if his mother was a mudder.

This year, there's a 30% chance for rain on Saturday. I'm not overly concerned about finding a mudder, but, in any case, pretty much all of the horses who made it past question 3 should just be fine in the mud.

Question 5
Can he go the distance? One common misconception is that horses who come from behind are stayers. This isn't necessarily the case. You still need to find a stretch runner with a pedigree that doesn't scream "sprinter".

Of the horses left: Barbaro, A.P. Warrior, Bluegrass Cat, Steppenwolfer and Point Determined should have enough blue blood to make it home.

Question 6
Horses prep all around the country and many never race against each other before the Derby. Therefore, it's useful to rank the regions. If, for example, the Florida horses are much the best this year, that gives you a reason to take a Florida stretch runner over one who stayed in California.

This year, it's all about the California-based horses. As a group, they appear the strongest, so bonus points for A.P. Warrior and Point Determined.

Question 7
Are any of the remaining horses trained by Bob Baffert or D. Wayne Lukas. Savvy handicappers are known to take out "Lukas insurance". That is, they'll place a small wager on Lukas-trained horses even if they don't really believe that they have a chance. History shows that you ignore Lukas & Baffert at your own peril.

This year, Lukas doesn't have a horse in the mix, but Bob Baffert trains Bob And John, Point Determined and the speedball Sinister Minister.

Question 8
Who do the Derby gods want to win? Really. The Derby gods are a sentimental bunch. If there's some octogenarian owner who has waited his whole life to win the Derby, he usually will. Good stories win.

This year, I think there are three exceptional stories. The recently widowed Beverly Lewis is represented in the Derby by Point Determined. Beverly and her husband Bob won the Derby with Charismatic & Silver Charm. Many folks would like to see the popular Beverly win this one on her own, in memory of her husband. Another good story belongs to Barbaro's trainer, Michael Matz, who was one of the survivors of a terrible Iowa plane crash back in the 1980s. Matz led three children from the wreck and then went back to save an 11-month old girl. The Derby gods gotta like that. Finally, the likely Derby favorite, the front-running Brother Derek, is trained by Dan Hendricks, who was paralyzed in a 2004 accident.

So, based on my flow chart of questions, the clear pick is Point Determined. He's a well-bred, stretch-running horse from California trained by Bob Baffert with a sentimental backstory. But here's where I screw myself up. I really don't think Point Determined is going to win. I prefer his California counterpart, A.P. Warrior. So, I'm bucking my own system to make my pick. Hopefully it'll pay off this year. For the trifecta, I like A.P. Warrior, Point Determined & Barbaro. Who do you like?

Who will win the Kentucky Derby?
	Jazil
	Steppenwolfer
	Keyed Entry
	Sinister Minister
	Point Determined
	Showing Up
	Bob and John
	Barbaro
	Sharp Humor
	A.P. Warrior
	Sweetnorthernsaint
	Private Vow
	Bluegrass Cat
	Deputy Glitters
	Seaside Retreat
	Cause To Believe
	Lawyer Ron
	Brother Derek
	Storm Treasure
	Flashy Bull
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Posted by kris at May 5, 2006 06:29 AM

    The trackback entry for this page is : http://www.inthehat.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/1311