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  • College Football Picks - Week 11

       November 09, 2006

    The college football picks come a day early again this week as two unbeaten Big East teams play tonight. There are a slew of great games on tap this weekend, so pull up a chair, grab some chips & salsa, open up a cold one and bring it on!

    #3 Louisville at #15 Rutgers: This whole "an unbeaten Louisville team doesn't deserve to go to the National Championship game" is a bunch of crap. Louisville has done everything it could to deserve a national title bid. They know their conference schedule is weak, so they scheduled two of the most successful schools of the last 10 years: Miami and Kansas State. It's not Louisville's fault that they both suck this year. It's like Wisconsin, they don't generally play a challenging preseason schedule because the Big Ten is challenge enough. It's not the Badgers' fault that most of the Big Ten stinks this year. So, will Louisville remain unbeaten? I think they will, at least through this week, because they get to play the great pretender, Rutgers. I'll be so happy when Rutgers finally loses. The pick: Louisville.

    #16 Wisconsin at Iowa: My happiness, however, will be short-lived as I think my Badgers are in for a tough one on Saturday. QB John Stocco is unlikely to play (and if he does, how effective will he be with a separated shoulder?). The backup QB Tyler Donovan is, to put it nicely, not that good. I don't expect Wisconsin to be able to pass, so Iowa can stack the line against P.J. Hill. Iowa has had a disappointing season and now they're playing the role of spoiler. Nothing will make the Hawkeyes happier than delivering another beatdown to the Badgers. The pick: Iowa. Ugh.

    South Carolina at #6 Florida: Auburn & Florida fans are already bitching about how their teams "deserve" to play in the National Championship game more than an unbeaten Louisville. I would like nothing more than for both of these teams to get tagged with a loss, just to shut them and their SEC defenders up. I'm hoping South Carolina has one more upset in them. I just have a good feeling about this one. The pick: South Carolina.

    #13 Tennessee at #11 Arkansas: I'm disappointed in Tennessee for losing to LSU. Now they're not even the best 2-loss team around. Arkansas, on the other hand, may really be the best 1-loss team. Of course, that title is somewhat like golf's "Best Player Who Has Never Won A Major" tag. In other words, it's not that great. This being the SEC, I don't really have a clue who is going to win, so I'm going to base my pick on what state product I like more. So, it's whiskey or pigs. I enjoy an adult beverage now and then, but let's face it, there's nothing like bacon. The pick: Arkansas.

    #21 Oregon at #7 USC: I knew USC would lose to Oregon State, but they are still a really good team. Oregon, on the other hand, strikes me as something of a paper tiger this year. They're just not as good as their advance billing. The pick: USC.

    Nebraska at #24 Texas A&M: It's the Big 12 where rankings are no reflection of the actual quality of any given team, except for Texas. So, while A&M has the fancy schmancy ranking, I think Nebraska is actually the better, more complete team. The pick (and it's not really an upset): Nebraska.

    Posted by at November 9, 2006 10:44 AM

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    #  November 9th, 2006 6:29 PM      drew
    A&M's not a very good team, but Nebraska has not played well on the road. I think A&M pulls out a close one at home.

    Louisville would get rolled by every one-loss team from a power conference. A buddy of mine made a point that I found funny and telling: "National Title-worthy teams don't play big games on Thursday night at papa John's Stadium." Every college football fan should hope they get treated to a better game than Ohio State rolling Louisville in Glendale.

    I'd love to see the Gamecocks beat Florida. Who knows... But I think they'd beat the crap out of Louisville, even with their anemic offense.  
    #  November 9th, 2006 7:02 PM      themandownthehall
    Jeezer Beezer, it's already week 11. I already miss the season. Of course when your teams are doing well (one of mine is, one is not), then that makes a season a little more fun. Anyway, on to the picks.

    Louisville Rutgers:
    This is a who knows versus who cares. I called WVU last time and we know how that turned out. Looking at the schedules, Louisville did play Miami, Kansas State and Kentucky, which may not be the valley of death, but it is a far cry better than Rutgers wins over North Carolina, Ohio and Illinois. Take Louisville.

    Wisconsin at Iowa.
    If this was in Wisconsin, it would be an easy pick. Iowa is having a terrible season. It is nearly impossible to right the ship once it starts to sink. Take Wisconsin in a squeaker.

    Spurrier goes back to the swamp. SC has played tough, but they can't handle the swamp. Florida by 10.

    Tenn vs Arkansas
    I still think Tennessee is a great team. They got caught daydreaming last week. Won't happen this week. Tennessee by a wide margin

    Oregon vs USC.
    USC is a good team. Make that great team. But this is one of my "he must be drunk" upset calls. Oregon in a close one.

    Nebraska owns them. It continues. Nebraska by 14.

    In other games, look for Michigan and Hitler to continue to look foolish as they continue to look ahead to each other. Remember, we can say stay focused all we want, so can the coaches, but these are 18-22 year olds. They can't help but look ahead. Still, it won't be ugly like last week.

    Florida State over Wake. Sorry, I am still not on the Wake bandwagon.

    Oregon over USC.

    And the biggest "he must be drunk" upset, Air Force over Satan. The Irish go down! Hey, we can hope right? I do hate them so.

    #  November 9th, 2006 10:40 PM      drew
    Louisville! HAHAHAHA!!!  
    #  November 9th, 2006 11:18 PM      kris
    I hope Rutgers ends up in the title game. I'd rather see them than USC or Notre Dame or Florida. If any of those teams wanted to play for a title they shouldn't have lost. Screw 'em.  
    #  November 9th, 2006 11:30 PM      drew
    Why? Rutgers is a mediocre team that plays in a bad conference, and who beat a mid-tier Top 25 team tonight. It'd be like watching the Chargers play the 49ers in SB XXIX.  
    #  November 10th, 2006 12:06 AM      kris
    I dispute your analogy. If the 49ers made the Super Bowl they would have won PLAYOFF games. In college football the regular season IS the playoff and Texas, USC, Notre Dame, Florida, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Cal have all LOST playoff games. The correct analogy would be for last year's Super Bowl to have been played between Seattle and Indy because we all knew Indy was the best team in the AFC.  
    #  November 10th, 2006 4:40 PM      BVBigBro
    Rutgers beats Louisville; now both of these crappy teams will be top 10.  
    #  November 10th, 2006 7:42 PM      drew
    You know as well as I do that Rutgers wouldn't stay on the same field as any of the teams you listed. And when West Virginia beats Rutgers by three TDs will you argue that Boise State deserves to play Ohio State?  
    #  November 10th, 2006 8:16 PM      themandownthehall
    Excuse me, Drew, you mean play "Michigan" don't you. It's ok, we all make mistakes. :)  
    #  November 10th, 2006 8:36 PM      kris
    I'll be pretty pissed if Texas gets a rematch (assuming OSU wins out). I can accept that they are a better team now as their QB has matured. But they lost at home. You don't get to get your butts kicked at home and then get another chance. No way.  
    #  November 10th, 2006 9:48 PM      kris
    What irritates me so much about college football is basing rankings on how good teams were supposed to be, rather than how they actually perform on the field. Some teams get the benefit of the doubt and some teams get screwed. As an example, I'd like to present a Tale of Two Teams:

    The first team, let's call them "Team N" is 8-1. A second team, "Team W" is 9-1. Team N has beaten one ranked team, Team W has beaten no ranked teams. Team N's opponents have won 49% of their games while Team W's opponents have won 47% of the time.

    The teams have 3 common opponents. Both teams lost to Team M. Team N lost at home to them by a score of 21-47, while Team W lost on the road 13-27.

    Team N beat a second common opponent, Team PS, 41-17 at home. Team W beat the same team at home 13-3.

    Finally, Team N beat Team PU 35-21 at home while Team W beat them on the road by a score of 24-3.

    So, Team N has that win over a ranked team and their opponents have a slightly higher win percentage. On the other hand, Team W has been more impressive against common opponents, particularly when you factor in that they played two of those games on the road.

    Looking at the tale of the tape, you'd guess that the teams would be ranked VERY close to one another. You'd guess wrong. Team N, Notre Dame (duh) is currently #9 in the AP Poll while Team W, Wisconsin, is just #16.

    The only reason Notre Dame is ranked so far ahead of Wisconsin is that they were supposed to be good. It's November, isn't it too late for "supposed to"s to count?  
    #  November 10th, 2006 11:22 PM      james
    RUTGERS with a great comeback for the improbable win

    WISCONSIN doesn't just squeak one out, they dominate T.O.P.

    SOUTH CAROLINA upsets florida in the house that spurrier built

    TENNESSEE because my keyboard is sticking

    USC hangs on and wins another one that everyone agrees they shouldn't have won. Translation: Pete Carroll is worth the $.

    TEXAS A+M uber alles

    Kris, you missed the biggest upset of all. That's right, the week has finally arrived.


    Remember kids, you read it here first.  
    #  November 11th, 2006 8:58 AM      BVBigBro
    The problem is that there is a preseason poll, and thus a pecking order, established purely on the basis of name. Get rid of the polls for the first six weeks of the season, and you have no problems. This won't happen, however, because the networks want the early season rankings in order to market games. Worse, they want the teams they are contracted with to be the teams most highly ranked.  
    #  November 11th, 2006 12:22 PM      themandownthehall
    James, I almost made that one of my "he must be drunk" upsets. There are a number of us Wolverine fans who worry a bit about that game. UM tends to play down to the lower teams and Indiana is one of those that can kick you when I happens. I don't think it will though. Manningham is back and they will be going to him and that will open the offense up a bit.

    Like I said above, you can say stay focused all you want, but these are 18-22 year olds. It's not their nature to stay focused.

    GA is beating Auburn in the second quarter. That just might shut Tubberville up if it continues.  
    #  November 11th, 2006 1:24 PM      kris
    Yeah, so I clearly didn't know what I was talking about in regards to Tyler Donovan. He's played great today. Sorry, Tyler, boy did I underestimate you!  
    #  November 11th, 2006 3:08 PM      themandownthehall
    Ok, both are up 14-0 in the first qtr. Looks like 18-22 year olds can focus...

    So how sweet was that GA upset over Auburn? Outstanding.  
    #  November 11th, 2006 6:06 PM      themandownthehall
    WHAT A GREAT DAY OF FOOTBALL, AND IT'S *STILL* GOING! Just watched Nebraska take down A&M and then 2 channels down to watch the end of the AZ win over Cal, and those came after that great finish in Florida! WOW! Let's hope the 8:00 games are as good. I love that ESPN gameplan!

    #  November 12th, 2006 10:03 AM      kris
    So apparently the BCS has some jackass rule that says a conference can't have three teams in the BCS. This rule will henceforth be known as the "Wisconsin Rule". The following scenario is really not that farfetched, is it?

    Next Week
    A. Wisconsin defeats Buffalo.
    B. Michigan defeats Ohio State in a close game.
    C. Pittsburgh defeats West Virginia
    D. Virginia Tech defeats Wake Forest
    E. Cal defeats USC
    F. South Florida defeats Louisville

    After the weekend, there are two major conference undefeated teams and 5 one-loss teams (OSU, Florida, Arkansas, Notre Dame & Wisconsin).

    Thanksgiving Weekend
    G. LSU defeats Arkansas
    H. USC defeats Notre Dame

    2 unbeatens and 3 one-loss teams

    Last Weekend of the season
    I. Arkansas defeats Florida in the SEC championship
    J. West Virginia defeats Rutgers

    So, as the season ends, we have 1 major undefeated team and 3 one-loss teams. Two of those teams' losses came against the #1 team. OSU will have lost at home while Wisconsin lost on the road. OSU would probably get a rematch and the Rose Bowl wouldn't even be able to pick Wisconsin. The BCS would most certainly include:

    1. Michigan - championship game
    2. OSU (1 loss) - championship game
    3. Arkansas (2 losses) - SEC champion
    4. Rutgers (1 loss) - Big East champion
    5. Some scrubby team (Virginia Tech, Maryland, Clemson, etc.) - ACC champion
    6. Texas or Nebraska (at least two losses) - Big 12 champion
    7. USC - Pac 10 champion
    8. Boise State - would easily be ranked in the top 12
    9. Florida (2 losses) -At large

    Who would the #10 team be? Another Big East team? A 2-loss Notre Dame? AUBURN??

    Of course, in this scenario Wisconsin and their fans bitch and piss and moan, and then get blown out in their bowl game ;-)
    #  November 12th, 2006 4:39 PM      drew
    LSU, Florida or Arkansas is going to get screwed by that, too.

    But hey, no BCS Bowl is probably better than going and playing a Lose-Lose game, as Nebraska is going to have to do.  



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