You are on an individual archive page

Click here to return to the main page

Wikipedia does good things. Reward them.

The Daily Links Page
Got a link to submit?
  • New Evidence Proves First Flag Made By Betsy Ross Actually Shirt For Gay Friend
  • Colbert Leads Huntsman in S.C.
  • Polish prosecutor 'shoots self after news conference'
  • Jim Rome leaving ESPN. Bonus: Footage of Jim Rome getting attacked by Jim Everett & crying like a baby
  • Broncos, Tim Tebow stun Steelers in OT, win 29-23 in NFL playoffs
  • Video: Remember 2008
       [ 1 comment ]
  • Beezow Doo-Doo Zopittybop-Bop-Bop faces weapon and drug charges
  • Video: Green Bay anchorman loves lamp
  • Video: Rodgers & Raji in the new Discount Double Check ad
  • Jim Rome: out of The Jungle and onto the (horse) farm
  • New IL Law Requires Photo ID To Buy Drain Cleaner
  • Fawn Cuddles Kitten, Hearts Explode
  • The priest who changed the course of history for the worse... by rescuing four-year-old Hitler from drowning in icy river
  • Get Fit or Get Fined: Web Service Offers to Charge You for Skipping the Gym
  • Fine proposed for botching US national anthem
  • Why Best Buy is Going out of Business...Gradually
       [ 1 comment ]
  • Edina boutique takes heat for trashing $4,000-plus gowns
  • Law Student Goes 'Homeless by Choice' Touts Value of Gym Club Membership
  • VIDEO: Snoop Dogg on 'The Price Is Right'
  • Flynn and Out
  • Don't put Bielema on the firing line
       [ 1 comment ]
  • Your end of the season Vikings comment thread
  • Mass. budget motel fights forfeiture by feds
  • Vikings scrutinize downtown Mpls. stadium site near basilica
  • Kelly Clarkson criticized on Twitter after singer endorses Ron Paul for President 
  • Political Predictions for 2012
  • We're All Doing The Best We Can
  • Video Of Little Girl Getting Pissed Off About Pink Toys Will Make Your Heart Swell
  • The 10 best sports-related Hitler Reactions of 2011
  • Happy Endings on the housing crisis
  • Why You Just Got New York Times Spam
  • There Will Be No Friday This Week In Samoa
  • The Most Hipster State In The US
  • Online Merchants Home in on Imbibing Consumers
       [ 1 comment ]
  • On islamic fashion
       [ 1 comment ]
  • Sears as Lampert's 'Mismanaged Asset' Loses Customers to Macy's
       [ 1 comment ]
  • 5 social network predictions for 2012
  • Cheetah, chimp star of classic Tarzan movies, dies at 80
  • The Hottest Things on TV in 2011
  • Beer in cans: It's not just for Bud anymore
  • Seven Packers earn Pro Bowl selections
  • The Worst Angry Christmas Tweets In the World
  • Minnesota cities try to hold back on rented housing
  • Why Iowa Shouldn't Vote First Anymore
  • Some Falcons Players Upset Drew Brees Went For The Record Last Night
  • We've Identified Jilted Packergirl
  • With its 'W' initiative, ESPN tries to solve the equation of serving women sports fans
  • Owner surprised to find cat regularly catches bus
  • Charles Barkley: Skip Bayless Has Surpassed Peter Vecsey As The Biggest Jackass In The History Of Journalism
  • Handicapping the 2011 NFL MVP Race, 2.0


  • Who will win the Kentucky Derby?

       May 03, 2007

    It's time for the Run for the Roses. I have the Dan Fogelberg song queued up on my iPod and a pot of Mint Julep syrup sitting in the fridge. Good times.

    Last year I went through a simple 8-step program to show you how to pick a Kentucky Derby winner. Although I didn't pick Barbaro last year, after five questions my system narrowed the 20-horse field to five contenders that included the $11,418.40 trifecta. So, ignore the method at your own risk. I also highly recommend the Louisville Courier-Journal's Data Track feature that lets you pick and choose specific criteria to help you come up with a winner.

    So who is going to win Saturday's race? Uh, I don't know. Really. What I think I know is that the race will not have a fast pace. It will not be won be either a front runner or a deep grinding closer. It will be won by the horse who produces the quickest acceleration around the final turn.

    I've narrowed the field to Curlin, Street Sense, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday, Hard Spun & Zanjero. Uh, that's too many. Let's see:

    • Curlin won the Arkansas Derby with what can only be described as "dismissive ease". But, who did he beat? No one. In recent years, Smarty Jones & Afleet Alex came out of Arkansas and set the Triple Crown world on fire. But both of those colts were known commodities. They were good two-year olds who were already near the top of most Derby lists. Curlin, on the other hand, didn't race at two. You have to go back to the 19th century to find the last Derby winner who didn't race at two. Next!
    • Scat Daddy
    • is a horse who likes to fight stretch battles and win races. But, like Curlin he hasn't really been beating the best horses. He's tough and admirable and I'm sure he'll run a good race, I just don't think he's good enough to win it.
    • Hard Spun is probably the fastest horse in the race. He's by the great Danzig so he's also among the best bred horses in the field. My problem with Hard Spun is his human connections. They hemmed and hawed about where and when to run the colt. As a result, he hasn't raced in six or seven weeks. You can't be that way about the Derby. The race is too hard to win by chance.
    • Zanjero is on my list mainly because he's the prettiest Derby horse since Fusaichi Pegasus and I'd love to see him win. He's an honest stretch runner who'll probably be in the mix for 3rd or 4th.

    So that leaves Street Sense and Any Given Saturday. These two hooked up in the Tampa Bay Derby earlier this year. After a stirring stretch battle, Street Sense won by a head. It was easily the best prep race of the season and I think it marked these colts as the best of their generation. Both horses lost their next race, but that doesn't bother me. A tough race takes a lot out of a horse and often they'll "bounce" and run worse in their next race. With the bounce out of the way, look for both of them to rebound in a big way in the Derby.

    Any Given Saturday is exactly the type of horse I usually pick to win the Derby. He's out of a daughter of my favorite stallion, A.P. Indy. His outside post in the Derby, post 18, might actually work to his advantage because he'll be forced to take back and make one big run, which I think fits his running style better.

    Street Sense had a spectacular workout last week. He's already won at Churchill Downs. Sure, no Breeders Cup Juvenile winner has ever won the Derby, but I find it hard to hold winning a race against a horse. He's got the turn of foot to get to the lead and the fight to stay there. Plus, he's trained by Carl Nafzger and the Derby Gods will want to reward Carl for how sweet he was to Frances Genter (who actually is one of the Derby Gods now) when Unbridled won the Derby back in 1990.

    I think that Hard Spun will be in the lead after a mile, but Scat Daddy will pass him on the turn. Street Sense will bound up alongside Scat Daddy, who'll put up a good fight, but Street Sense will put him away midway through the stretch. Zanjero and Any Given Saturday will be closing like wild horses, but it won't be enough. Street Sense is your winner!

    Next year, look out for Thrust.

    Who do you like?

    Who will win the Kentucky Derby?
    Storm In May
    Cowtown Cat
    Street Sense
    Hard Spun
    Bwana Bull
    Nobiz Like Showbiz
    Sam P.
    Scat Daddy
    Circular Quay
    Any Given Saturday
    Great Hunter
  free polls

    Posted by at May 3, 2007 11:20 AM

        The trackback entry for this page is :


    Trackback Entries



    #  May 5th, 2007 5:28 PM      kris
    Wooooo! Yay Street Sense!  
    #  May 5th, 2007 6:35 PM      james
    i think street sense will win  
    #  May 6th, 2007 10:10 AM      kris
    Some data to put Street Sense's win in perspective:

    1997 - 3/4 in 1:12 1/5, mile in 1:37 flat, finish in 2:02 2/5, the winner is the stalking Silver Charm

    1998 - 3/4 in 1:10.62, mile in 1:35.61, finish in 2:02.38, winner is the closer Real Quiet.

    1999 - 3/4 in 1:12.52, mile in 1:37.58, finish in 2:03.29, the winner is the stalker Charismatic.

    2000 - 3/4 in 1.09.99, mile in 1:35.74, finish in 2:01.12, winner is the deep closer Fusaichi Pegasus.

    2001- 3/4 in 1:09.25, mile in 1:35, finish in 1.59.97, winner is the deep closer Monarchos.

    2002 - 3/4 in 1:11.75, mile in 1:36.70, finish in 2:01.13, winner is the front runner War Emblem.

    2003 - 3/4 in 1:10.48, mile in 1:35.75, finish in 2:01.19, winner is the stalker Funny Cide.

    2004 - 3/4 in 1:11.88, mile in 1:37.35, finish in 2:04.06, winner is the stalker Smarty Jones.

    2005 - 3/4 in 1:09.59, mile in 1:35.88, finish in 2:02.75, winner is the deep closer Giacomo.

    2006 - 3/4 in 1:10.88, mile in 1:37.02, finish in 2:01.36, winner is the stalker Barbaro

    2007 - 3/4 in 1:11.13, mile in 1:37.04, finish in 2:02.17, winner is the deep closer Street Sense

    Looking to the recent past, you'll notice that most Derbies won by closers have a 3/4 time around 1:09, which is a DAMN fast pace. Obviously, it's much easier for closers to win if the horses in front of them are tired because they ran fast early.

    Yesterday, Street Smart closed into a very moderate pace. The race played out a lot like the 2005 Derby won by Smarty Jones, except in that case Smarty was nicely sitting just off the leader while this year Street Sense was waaaaay back.

    I'm ultra impressed by his race and I can't wait to see what he does in the Preakness.  



      page rendered in 0.0553 seconds | ©2004, 2005