If Street Sense's nose was just a little bit longer, tomorrow's Belmont Stakes would be the biggest event of a busy sports weekend. As it is, even with no Street Sense and no Triple Crown on the line, the Belmont is shaping up to be a fantastic race. Preakness winner Curlin and Derby runner-up Hard Spun will be joined by multiple stakes winner Slew's Tizzy, Santa Anita Derby winner Tiago, the promising C.P. West & Imawildandcrazyguy and, most electrifying, by the top 3-year old filly in the nation, Rags To Riches. Only two fillies have won the Belmont Stakes, the last over 100 years ago, so needless to say, "Rags" has her work cut out for her.

I see the race shaping up like this: Hard Spun & Slew's Tizzy will set an honest, but not sizzling, pace. C.P. West & Imawildandcrazyguy will sit in the garden spot behind them while Curlin, Tiago & Rags To Riches bring up the rear. Hard Spun faded in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes after setting moderate paces. I see no reason that he won't do the same tomorrow. Slew's Tizzy & Imawildandcrazyguy are both really nice horses who are going to give their owners a lot of wins and a lot of fun over the next couple of years, but I don't think their classic horses. Tiago isn't going to get the fast pace he needs to run into to win. That brings the race down to C.P. West, Curlin & Rags To Riches.

C.P. West is a beautiful animal with an extremely bright future. He ran a great race in the Preakness for such an inexperienced horse, but I worry that the 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont is beyond his scope. His young sire, Came Home, was a fast and game colt, but stamina wasn't his strong point. On the other hand, C.P. West looks like he can handle the Belmont distance and his female family is filled with distance runners like Roberto & Hawaii. He looks like a chocolate version of the great Belmont-winning Easy Goer. Do you know how hard it is for me to pick against a colt that reminds me of the Goer? It's almost impossible. Almost.

Curlin's Preakness was great, but I have the nagging feeling that Street Sense lost the race more than Curlin won it. If they run that Preakness 10 times, I think Street Sense wins at least seven of them. Curlin basically picked up the pieces and passed tiring horses in both the Derby and the Preakness. I haven't seen him make an explosive move against top horses like Street Sense routinely does. He could win, but he's no superhorse.

So that brings us to Rags To Riches. Ah, Rags. No horse is better bred for the Belmont than this chestnut filly. Her sire, A.P. Indy won the Belmont. Her half-brother, Jazil, won the Belmont just last year. Her grandsire, Seattle Slew, won the Belmont and her great-grandsire, Secretariat, really won the Belmont. That's a whole lotta Belmonts. In Rags To Riches' last start, she dominated her sex in the Kentucky Oaks. Her speed figures are right in line with the colts. She has the stretch-running style to blow past the leaders in the stretch and she's apparently mean enough to fight off any challenges.

I can't believe I'm going to pick the filly, but I am. Rags To Riches for the Belmont!