Daily Page | Zebrality | NCAA Pool | General Chat | Latest Comments

You are on an individual archive page

Click here to return to the main page


The Daily Links Page
Got a link to submit?
  • AP Exclusive: Ex-manager says OJ Simpson confessed
  • California man losing nine homes in mortgage mess
  • Chef wants to outlaw out-of-season vegetables
  • David Archuleta's Father Banned from Idol Backstage
  • Men charged after skull dug up, used as bong
  • Yost might be toast if he can't light a fire under team
       [ 1 comment ]
  • The Workplace: How to tell if you're a workaholic
  • Omaha man uses steak knife to perform self-tracheotomy
       [ 1 comment ]
  • College Junior Enters NBA Draft. The Catch: He Has No Basketball Playing Experience
  • How about 8 things he hates about you?
  • Laid off? The one thing you absolutely need to do on the first day
  • Did Madison cops miss chance to catch Joel Marino killer?
  • Tibetan woman holds Olympic flame atop Everest
  • Denver man wants city prepared for space aliens
  • Union officials defend 911 dispatcher in Zimmermann case
  • Snoop Dogg Guests On 'One Life to Live' Tomorrow
       [ 1 comment ]
  • U.S. Diplomat Says 100,000 May Have Died in Myanmar Cyclone
  • Chorus Grows for Clinton to Get Out of Democratic Race
       [ 1 comment ]
  • Retailers Crack Down as Consumers Attempt to Save Money Online
  • Second Madison 911 error sent homicide detectives on wrong trail
  • UW's Ogg Hall left half-razed after state kills contract with demolition company
       [ 1 comment ]
  • George Lucas: 'Star Wars' won't go beyond Darth Vader
  • Democratic and Republican healthcare plans offer clear choices
       [ 3 comments ]
  • A Mother's Day Report Card: The Best - And Worst - Countries to Be a Mother
  • No free lunch _ or breakfast _ for Obama
  • What McCain expects from federal judges
       [ 1 comment ]
  • Classes My Top-Tier Law School Should Have Offered as Warnings About the Profession
  • Florida to become two states?
  • Connecticut boy takes off Favre jersey for good after four years
  • VP Madness: GOP style
  • Amazon Sues Over Internet Taxes
  • Photo ID may be required for boaters
  • Tree Worshipers Take Switzerland; Lawnmowers To Be Outlawed as Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Mifflin Street Block Party: An undercurrent of anger
  • Madison, Wisconsin's Liberal Attitudes Toward Homelessness: What do you expect?
       [ 6 comments ]
  • Brewers pitcher Gallardo suffers ACL injury in collision
  • Paul Soglin's Derby Picks
  • Slain Madison girl dialed 911 - was hung up on by dispatcher
  • Mike Golic Holds His Own Against Professional Eaters
  • Global Cooling?
  • Is Obama Tanking, And Is That A Good Thing?
  • Police: Woman believed to be 'D.C. madam' kills herself
  • Hillary vs. the coffee maker
       [ 2 comments ]
  • Albert Hofmann, father of drug LSD, dies in Switzerland
  • Foreign Law and the First Amendment
  • Treadmill Desk: Lose 57 lbs in One Year...Really
  • Advice for the Lovelorn from Barack Obama
  • McCain Takes On Health Care
  • Science vs. Prayer (Science wins)
  • Candidates favor reducing carbon emissions to levels not seen since the American Revolution

     

  • 2007 Breeders Cup Picks

       October 25, 2007

    This year, the Breeders Cup adds three races and spans two days, so my annual picks come a day early. I admit that I haven't given these picks that much thought this year, but at least I'm in no danger of over analyzing the races. Whew!

    Filly & Mare Sprint
    The first Friday races kick off with distaff sprinters. As with the males, analysts always say that there's tons of speed in the race and that therefore a closer will win. Sometimes that's true, but sometimes there's a speed of the speed. If that's the case, then give me that horse. I this race, Shaggy Mane fits the bill. She's gotten the lead in her last 11 starts. She doesn't always win, but I feel like with that kind of style she'll give herself a fighting chance, all with a tasty 12-1 morning line. Honorable mention: La Traviata and Wild Gams.

    Juvenile Turf
    In this race, I want a two-year old with some turf success and/or a strong turf pedigree. I think an outside post would be difficult to overcome. Putting it all together, I like Gio Ponti, who's 2-2 on the turf, out of an Alydar mare (Alydar is a strong turf influence in pedigrees) and is trained by a good turf trainer in Christopher Clement. Honorable mention: Prussion and Strike The Deal.

    Dirt Mile
    A mile on the dirt is a funny race. Traditionally, good milers are the best stallions. I think it's because the mile requires a unique combination of speed and stamina. The first dirt mile is absolutely loaded with speed. Discreet Cat, Gottcha Gold, High Finance and Wanderin Boy are all quick horses. I think that'll they battle each other to the death and Corinthian will swoop past them for the victory like he did in this year's grade 1 Metropolitian Mile. Honorable mention: Discreet Cat and Xchanger.

    Juvenile Fillies
    Saturday's races kick off with the two-year old fillies. What I want in this race is a filly that has looked decent in a two-turn race, has improving or steady speed figures and is not in an outside post position due to the short run into the first turn at Monmouth Park. Of course, that's the ideal. In the real world, I'll be happy to settle for Indian Blessing. She hasn't run around two turns yet, but she also hasn't lost. She's going to be favored, but a few favorites do win on Breeders Cup day and I think she'll be one of them. Honorable mention: Tasha's Miracle and Irish Smoke.

    Juvenile
    I loved Dixie Chatter in this race, but he was unfortunately scratched yesterday. As with the fillies, I'd like a colt with two-turn experience, improving numbers and an inside post. Shore Do has all of those attributes and a pedigree that says he'll improve with distance. He's a huge longshot, but he was just three lengths behind Dixie Chatter in his last and he's ever right to do better here. Honorable mention: Old Man Buck and Slew's Tiznow.

    Filly & Mare Turf
    In the Filly & Mare Turf, I want a horse with success at the Grade or Group 1 level. Because it might be wet in New Jersey this weekend, I'd like a horse with success on soggy turf and, believe it or not, I have a bias towards French-trained runners. Really. Unfortunately, there are no good Frenchies this year. Boo! There is, however, the unbeaten Nashoba's Key. While you always have to respect an unbeaten horse, I'm not sold on her because she hasn't raced outside California and she hasn't raced on soft turf. I'm going to go with Wait a While. Her form is a little erratic, but she's also excelled in a variety of conditions. My Typhoon, who has beaten Wait a While a couple of times this year, isn't in this field, so I think things are going to open up for this lovely gray mare. Honorable mention: Lahudood and Nashoba's Key.

    Sprint
    My key to the sprint is to find a good 6 furlong specialist. Not a good 7 furlong runner or a good miler. Nope - I want a pure sprinter. This year I like Smokey Stover breaking from the one hole. "Smokey" is 5 for 6 this year, all at 6 or 6 1/2 furlongs. He's won all over the country, including at Monmouth Park. He's a versatile sort who can get to the lead or hang just off of it, as circumstances require. I'm sold. Honorable mention: Idiot Proof and Greg's Gold.

    Mile
    The Mile is about one thing and one thing only - who can run the quickest final quarter of a mile. Seriously. Sometimes you'll do some calculations and find a clear fastest finisher. This year, not so much. No one in this field stands out to me but I did like Nobiz Like Shobiz's last start where he gained four lengths in the last quarter. His running line paints the right picture too: "going away late", "hard drive", "good finish outside", "all out, prevailed". Honorable mention: Purim and Host.

    Distaff
    Without Rags to Riches, I think the Distaff will come down to the top three finishers in the Beldame Stakes: Ginger Punch, Indian Vale and Unbridled Belle. This really isn't the best reason, but I'm going to pick Indian Vale because she's a daughter of A.P. Indy, and the "Indys" have been good to me over the years. Honorable mention: Unbridled Belle and Teammate.

    Turf
    Dylan Thomas is the hot favorite here, but I think that this is a just a side trip on his road to stud. His big target was the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (which he won). I think he's over the top, but I don't think there's anyone in this race good enough to beat him even if he only brings his "C" game. Honorable mention: Shamdinan and Grand Couturier.

    Classic
    The classic is a fantastic race this year with Street Sense, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Any Given Saturday, Hard Spun and Tiago in the field. Street Sense lost the Kentucky Cup Classic to Hard Spun last out, but that was a prep. This is the target. Street Sense's amazing acceleration will catapult him past this field and straight to a stud as the first horse to ever win two different Breeders Cup races. Honorable mention: Any Given Saturday and Curlin.

    Good luck everyone!


    Posted by kris at October 25, 2007 09:31 PM

        The trackback entry for this page is : http://www.inthehat.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/1547

     

    Trackback Entries

     


    Comments

    #  October 26th, 2007 4:10 PM      kris
    Two races: two out of the money finishes. Go me!  
     
    #  October 26th, 2007 4:34 PM      kris
    I'm going to track results based on an imaginary $2.00 across the board (a win/place & show bet) on the picks listed above. So, that puts me for $66. Will I make a profit??  
     
    #  October 26th, 2007 4:48 PM      kris
    Yes! Corinthian wins the Dirt Mile! My three bets paid a total of $16.80, so I'm now just down $49.20.  
     
    #  October 28th, 2007 7:29 PM      kris
    Yikes! My only other in the money finish was with Indian Blessing, who did win the Juvy Fillies. My pick in the Filly & Mare Turf, Wait a While, was scratched, so my final tally for the day was minus $29.80.

    That's just sad.  
     

     

     


    To leave a comment you must be logged in.
    Log in here
    or Get an Account here.