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    • Six Swingin' States - The Usual Suspects

       March 02, 2008

    I was playing around with the Wall Street Journal's Electoral College Calculator and I came to two conclusions. First, I'm not sure McCain can win. Second, the election is going to come down to the usual suspects: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri & Pennsylvania.

    The cool thing about the WSJ site is that you can pick any starting point and manipulate the result by state. I started from 2004's close states and see these states going to the Dems: Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Michigan, New Jersey & Delaware. The GOP gets: Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado & New Hampshire. That scenario puts the electoral count at 225-217 in favor of the Republicans.

    So who takes those final six states and who, if anyone, can the nominees choose as running mates to tip the balance or put another state into play? Imagine, for example, if Obama could convince Sam Nunn to be his running mate. Georgia and other parts of the south could go to the Dems. For the GOP, a Missourian like Matt Blunt could shore up a key swing state.

    Right now, my guess is that McCain will take Florida & Missouri, but the Democrats will prevail in Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio & Pennsylvania, winning the election by a 275-263 count.

    What's your count?


    Posted by kris at March 2, 2008 10:39 PM

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    Comments

    #  March 3rd, 2008 12:46 PM      kris
    Actually, the revelation that Obama's people basically told Canada to ignore his tough rhetoric about NAFTA will probably hurt him in Ohio in the general election.

    I'm not looking forward to all of the election ads that those of us in the swing states "get" to see.  
     
    #  March 3rd, 2008 2:46 PM      james
    there will be no "swing states" in the upcoming election - mccain's lack of principled conservativism makes him wholly unelectable. obama wins in the biggest electoral landslide since washington.  
     
    #  March 3rd, 2008 3:10 PM      kris
    I was looking at some of our oldest posts yesterday and I found a few from 2004 and I was surprised at how positive you were towards McCain. I don't mean this as an "aha!" at all, I just honestly didn't remember you liking him that much:

    The Dems dream ticket

    John McCain is a Republican

    Greatest living American

    I was actually thinking of reposting the 2nd one and questioning whether or not I really should feel better about McCain.

    Funny.

     
     
    #  March 3rd, 2008 5:00 PM      james
    "Positive" is a relative term.

    McCain is a fiscal conservative, no one can argue with that. I found it laughable that Dem bloggers thought he would be an ideal match for their party. That said, I have concerns about his basis for fiscal conservativism - it seems that his views aren't based on a theory of the role of government, but are instead the mutterings of someone simply used to parroting "we can't afford that" too many times.

    As for nominating him for "greatest living american," see my second comment in that thread.  
     
    #  March 3rd, 2008 5:23 PM      themandownthehall
    McCain will take Ohio, maybe Iowa. If he gets Ridge as his VP, he takes Pennsylvania. When Barack finally has to start talking, he will lose. He is more liberal than Teddy Kennedy. His single handed defeat of the Infant Born Alive Protection Act in Illinois will lose a lot of Reagan democrats. When they hear he wants to eliminate the missile defense and cut defense, he will lose the rest of them. Ohio, PA, Iowa, FL and Missouri goes McCain, not because people like him, but because they will be mortified by Obama.  
     
    #  March 3rd, 2008 9:19 PM      BVBigBro
    McCain is a westerner. The GOP would do well to go after California.  
     
    #  March 3rd, 2008 9:39 PM      kris
    I think it would be very foolish to put any money into California when the GOP can win without it.

    California is a last resort.  
     
    #  March 3rd, 2008 9:51 PM      kris
    Heh, I guess you're not alone in your thinking:

    John McCain and his aides are already thinking about which states to target in the fall and one tops the list: California.

    "I want to compete in California," the Arizona senator said Monday, saying his outlook on such issues as the environment will be a help in the traditionally blue state. McCain also enjoys the support of California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican.

    The task is daunting — no Republican nominee has taken California since the first President Bush in 1988.

    Senior adviser Steve Schmidt, a former aide to Schwarzenegger, said California "is closer to being a purple state than a blue state." He said McCain's appeal to independents also gives him a chance in other states normally thought of as Democratic. According to the Almanac of American Politics, in the 2004 presidential election, Democrat John Kerry won Washington, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine and California with at least 53% of the vote.
     
     
    #  March 3rd, 2008 10:42 PM      BVBigBro
    I favor California because I think McCain could win it with surprisingly little effort and without much pandering.  
     
    #  March 4th, 2008 1:53 AM      TheUnabrewer
    I think the Dummocrats crew is misunderestimating McCain. Or misoverestimating Obama.

    But I could be wrong.  
     

     

     

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