July 02, 2008

Yesterday we looked at the teams and riders. Today we’ll look at the stages and see if we can make sense of a Tour that I think will be either a fairly straightforward win for Cadel Evans, or totally unpredictable.

For 2008 the Tour has dispensed with the usual formula of a short prologue followed by a week plus of flat stages interrupted only by an individual time trial. This year the Tour will start with several rolling road stages including some that that finish on short climbs followed by a medium length time trial and then quickly into mountains. There will be no chance for anyone to ride their way into form in this Tour. The riders will have to be at their best immediately or face the prospect of losing significant time before the real race would normally even begin. All in all I think this will work against the climbers as they normally don’t have to contest wide open road stages where they instead simply sit in the peloton and finish with the main group. This year that tactic will likely cost some riders some time.

Stage one will start the start the race and instead of being a stage for the sprinters it is a relatively flat stage that ends on a short uncategorized climb. Short climbs like this normally break up the finish enough that there are time gaps between the finishers. If this were a one day race the climb would result in a fight between a handful of riders like Valverde who can both sprint and climb. As it is, this is the Tour and there will be 180 riders all looking to avoid getting gapped on the climb and losing any time. This fact likely will result in a frantic finish and possibly some crashes. Valverde might be able to get an early win, but in order to do so he will have to take risks. CSC also has a lot of strong riders who could take this stage.

Stage two is a hilly stage that also has an unclassified climb near the finish. It will be difficult for the sprinters’ teams to hold this one together so we may see a breakaway get a win here. That would probably be OK with the GC contenders who will be looking to mark the other contenders to make sure no one gains any time.

After two stages where the sprinters may be shut out, Stage three is a flat stage that should give us a sprint finish. With Tom Boonen out this will likely be contested by Hushovd, McEwen, Freire and possibly also Robbie Hunter and Columbia/High Road’s Mark Cavendish. The battle for the green jersey begins in earnest here. (editor's note - I would also look to Garmin/Chipotle to make a play for a stage win in one of these first few stages - with no real GC contender, they'll want to make a splash early, so maybe Julian Dean in stage three?).

Stage four is the first time trial of the Tour. It’s flat, non-technical and only 29k so the time gaps should be relatively small. Nevertheless Evans and Denis Menchov need to take time out of their rivals here in order to have a good chance at overall victory. For the stage win I like CSC’s Fabian Cancellara or maybe David Millar who would love to get a stage win for Garmin/Chipotle in their first Tour.

Stage five should give us another sprint finish before we get some real climbing on Stage six. This stage has two category 2 climbs including a category 2 summit finish. While the climbs are not particularly difficult and we are not yet in the high mountains, the climbers can be expected to hit the final climb as hard as necessary to drop whoever they can. The final climb will be a maximum effort for all who fancy themselves contenders and by the end of this stage we will know who is pretending and who is for real. If there is to be a surprise contender like a Roman Kreuziger, we should know on this stage.

Stage seven is another transitional stage that has a category 2 climb midway though followed by a category 3 climb 9k from the finish. If any of the sprinters’ teams can get the group back together after the cat. 2 climb, they may be able to surprise everyone and get a sprint finish out of this stage. It’s more likely, though, that someone will break clear on the cat. 2 and hold out to the end. An aggressive descender like Samuel Sanchez may be a good candidate for a stage win here, especially if he has lost some time already and is not considered a threat by the other GC riders.

Stage eight begins with a bunch of category 3 and 4 climbs, but then levels out for the finish. There will be early breakaways desperately trying to hold out on this stage but I think it will be brought together in the end for another bunch sprint.

Stage nine hits the mountains in earnest. After some small early climbs we get the category 1 Col de Peyresourde followed quickly by the category 1 Col d’Aspin before a 26k descent to the finish. Once again a descender who can get over the mountains with the lead group stands an excellent chance of getting a stage win. For the contenders it will be a fight on the final descent to see if any time gaps gained on the last climb can be made good in the end. The final descent should see some risky riding as the leaders are either trying to keep their gains or limit their losses.

The riders will get no rest as the Tour gets into even more climbing on Stage ten. This stage takes the riders over the monstrous hors categorie Col du Tourmalet before a summit finish on the hors categorie Hautacam. If any of the pure climbers are to make an impact on the Tour they need to do well here. It’s possible that someone like Mauricio Soler will be out on an all day breakaway to rack up climbing points in a quest for the polka dot jersey and take a stage win in the process, but for riders like Evans and Menchov it will be a day of survival as they try to hold off the inevitable attacks on the climbs. If any of the contenders are able to successfully attack on the first climb, this may be a very exciting stage where a favorite or two sees their Tour dreams go up in smoke.

After finally getting a rest day the riders will have a relatively easy Stage eleven. This stage has a category 1 climb in the middle, but it is a good 50k from the finish so the contenders should not be able to take time from one another, especially after a rest day. Look for a breakaway to win or possibly a sprint if any of the sprinters teams make it over the summit of the climb intact.

Stage twelve loses quite a bit of elevation before a fairly flat second half of the stage so look for a relatively fast pace and a sprint finish. Stage thirteen has some small climbs, but finishes flat enough for yet another sprint finish. After this stage the green jersey contenders will be few in number and we may already have a winner if some of the sprinters had trouble in the mountains.

Stage fourteen is an interesting stage. It is nearly all uphill and while it has only two category 4 climbs, the stage gains over 2000 feet from start to finish. The final cat. 4 climb is less than 10k from the finish and I think we will see some fireworks here between both riders looking for a stage win and riders still in contention for the overall. Look for another frantic finish.

Stage fifteen is one of those stages I will be happy to be watching and not riding. The stage almost immediately hits the hors categorie Col Agnel and after a long descent and a flat stretch finishes on the category 1 Prato Nevoso. This stage takes place in the high mountains where the air is thinner and we can expect the remaining contenders to wait until the last climb when someone will attack with abandon. The remaining polka dot jersey hopefuls will likely be holding their own private war for whatever climbing points the GC contenders will let them have.

After another rest day Stage sixteen gets even harder with a pair of hors categorie climbs at high altitude, the Col de la Lombarde and the Cime de la Bonette-Restefond before a nasty, technical descent to the finish. Sammy Sanchez may find the Tour much to his liking if he can get over the climbs with the leaders and see another downhill finish.

Stage seventeen finally concludes the mountains with the Tours’ hardest day and the last chance for the climbers to gain significant ground. This stage goes over the hors categorie Col du Galibier, the hors categorie Col de la Croix de Fer and finally finishes at the summit of the famous L’Alpe-D’Huez. The stage is a nice mix of brutality and prestige and we will likely look back, point to this stage and say the Tour was won or lost here. The first two climbs will drop all but a couple dozen of the best riders and we will then see one of the Tours traditional spectacles as the riders ascend the switchbacks of L’Alpe-D’Huez. It’s fun to watch as the riders can sometimes see each other above and below them and know how much ground they are gaining or losing. Cadel Evans needs to find a way to hold out here and keep any time gaps that occur within the range of what he can make up in the final time trial.

The riders may be done with the mountains, but they are not done climbing as Stage eighteen features several small categorized climbs. After the previous days’ agony it will be easy for the teams and riders to lose focus but they must still be attentive as the final short climbs could provide the launching pad for a late attack. Unless the race is still in doubt, though, I think we’ll see a truce of sorts from the contenders and the stage go to a breakaway..

Stage nineteen is a rolling stage, but with all the climbing of the past week I think the breakaways will lose their legs and the sprinters’ teams will give us a bunch sprint with the possibility of the green jersey still in the balance if more than one top sprinter has made it through the Alps.

Stage twenty is the second individual time trial, this time 53k, and it will be the moment of truth for Cadel Evans and Denis Mechov. For Evans or Menchov to win they to be close enough after the mountains to put some serious time into their rivals in the “race of truth”. For those out of contention it will be difficult to get motivated for this stage so there will be some big time gaps to the back of the pack. For the contenders this will be one hour flat out for a chance at cycling’s biggest prize. There’s a purity to that that is appropriate for a three week race. I think Evans will get both a Tour and stage win here.

Stage twenty one is the final stage featuring the traditional criterium on the Champs-Ellysees. This stage will be a celebration for our winner and a prestigious stage win for one lucky sprinter.

Those are the stages. How will this race play out? In spite of the past few years, I don’t think the doping talk will overwhelm the Tour this year. The contenders and their teams are mostly the quiet sort and the worst offenders will not be present at all. The race itself looks to be Cadel Evans’ to win or lose, but this is in part because we don’t really know the quality of some of the younger riders and the fact that of all the riders only Oscar Pereiro has won the Tour previously and that result wasn’t finally confirmed until a few days ago. In short, it is fair to ask if any of the riders really know what it takes to win the Tour. That question is the place to start.

In order to win the Tour a rider first has to finish. That has been a problem for Alejandro Valverde who crashed out of the Tour before and also left because of injury. A rider also has to be able handle some adversity. Not everything will go your way in the Tour and you have to be able to accept time losses on some stages and still be able to come out the next day fighting. I see this especially in Evans and Sastre. Both are riders who give what they have and never quit. I don’t see the likes of Damiano Cunego beating them on guts.

Unless you are totally dominant it pays to be aggressive in the Tour. This is Valverde’s strength and thus far has been Evans’ weakness. Evans will be tested in the mountains by Valverde, Menchov and Sastre. Their ability to attack in the mountains likely will place Evans on the defensive and possibly reveal him as being weaker than thought.

From a technical standpoint you have to be good in the time trials and climbs. These are the only likely places one can gain time on rivals. Among the contenders Evans and Menchov are clearly the best time trialers and while all the contenders can climb Valverde has shown he can attack in the mountains. With several finishing descents we may see a descender who can climb like Sammy Sanchez be unexpectedly close to the front.

Finally, it pays to have a team that is 100% behind you and to have a director who is focusing his strategy on winning the overall. CSC has an immensely powerful team but has never used this team to support a single rider. I don’t think that will change this year and it may be Carlos Sastre’s biggest weakness. With so many strong riders it would be good tactics for CSC to send a darkhorse contender like one of the Schleck’s (editor's note - I would love to see one of the Schlecks get in the Yellow Jersey) up the road on the attack and force the other teams to make the choice between working to bring him back or risking a time gap that can’t be made up later. Either way it would work to Sastre’s advantage.

As I wrote before I’m picking Evans to win. Evans should have no trouble finishing and is mentally tough enough to handle the obstacles that will get in his way. Throughout the course of the first two weeks I think some of his competitors will eliminate themselves and Evans will be able to play enough defense in the mountains to keep the race close enough so that he can grab the yellow jersey in the final time trial if he needs to. His main competition will come from Denis Menchov who may be a better climber than Evans. If Menchov can get away on even a single mountain stage he can win this race (editor's note - I realize that the Chicken is persona non grata - but if Menchov couldn't win with Rasmussen's help in the mountains in 2006, I don't think he's going to win now without him). Finally, we have a host of inexperienced riders like Kreuziger, Sanchez, Ricco and Cunego. No one really knows what they are capable of but I fully expect at least one of them to step and challenge for a podium finish.

Last year I was very pessimistic about the Tour. This year I am optimistic. The Tour has taken a draconian stance on dopers and their enablers and it is paying off. While there is a lot of apprehension about what might happen this year I think we have a good group of riders that will stay clean and give us an entertaining, uncontroversial race. For Americans there will be no challenger for the overall this year, and probably not even a stage winner but if you simply like bike racing this should be years’ best race.

So sit back Saturday and enjoy. I’ll post a few updates throughout the race and let you know my thoughts on the action.

Posted by BVBigBro at July 2, 2008 08:41 AM

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