2008 Tour de France Update #2
After two weeks the biggest story at the Tour de France is once again a doping scandal. This time it is the Saunier Duval team and Ricardo Ricco. Both have departed the Tour, probably forever, and that is entirely proper. From the tough talk after the positive test it is clear that the ASO, which owns the Tour, is going to hold the teams, directors and team doctors responsible for their riders’ behavior. This is also proper. This year has clearly shown that the rewards for cheating still outweigh the penalties for cheating and thus cheats remain prevalent. That is now coming to an end. Not only does the Tour appear prepared to kick out teams and riders wholesale, but they were also able to detect a doping drug that only became available this year. The swift penalties and unexpected ability to detect new drugs should achieve a clean Tour fairly quickly. The only thing left is to expand the scope of the testing to all of the riders and to include more testing throughout the year.
To that end, the last roadblock to the ASO getting its’ way regarding doping was removed when the UCI learned this week that the professional teams that currently make up its’ pro tour will not be participating next year. There will undoubtedly be a new series of races next season requiring conformance with the ASO’s doping standards for participation. This should allow the ASO to enforce real testing standards throughout the season.
Don’t be too put off by cycling right now. Cycling leads the way among professional sports in attempting to put on a show that has not been chemically enhanced. The last few years have been tough, but the foundation has now been laid for a new era of sportsmanship in cycling. It’s now up to the riders and teams to build on that foundation.
If the latest doping scandal has removed all interest for you, then that’s a shame. Outside of the doping we’ve seen some good racing for once by team CSC. CSC finally employed some sound tactics by sending Frank Schleck up the road on the attack in the mountains. That, combined with Cadel Evans and Denis Menchov’s unwillingness to drag Carlos Sastre in pursuit allowed Schleck to be one second off the lead of Evans with Sastre still close enough to strike. CSC now has two men who can realistically contend and that will allow them to try the same tactic again in the Alps. The only downside was the team did a lot of work by itself on the stage in order to drop Alejandro Valverde, a worthy goal, but one that helped everyone, not just CSC. Unfortunately since then we’ve also seen CSC use a lot of energy putting people in breaks in attempts to get stage wins. Stage wins are nice, but they detract from Schleck and Sastre’s race for the overall.
Christian Vande Velde has also put in a nice race that has kept him in the fight for a podium spot, but I suspect he will find the attacks in the Alps difficult to follow. I hope he finds a way to hold out as it would be good both for American cycling and for his Garmin/Chipotle/Slipstream team. Denis Menchov remains the man Cadel Evans should fear the most. Menchov can climb with Evans and will be the only contender who can match Evans in the final time trial.
For Cadel Evans, CSC’s work put him in the yellow jersey which he figures to keep all the way to Paris. The only downsides have been a nasty crash, which doesn’t appear to have affected him permanently, and the fact that he personally was once again the victim of the dopers. Last year Evans lost significant time to Alberto Contador through Contador’s cooperation with the doping Michael Rasmussen in the mountains (editor's note - let's just go ahead and include Contador among the dopers, okay - Rasmussen wasn't the only villain in the peloton). This year Frank Schleck gained some time on Evans through his cooperation with the Saunier Duval riders. This is not Schleck’s fault or doing by any means, but it’s a shame that it happened to Evans twice and is the best argument of all for kicking out whole teams when riders get caught doping. Doping riders affect stage races far more than just the impact to their own performance.
Between now and the end of the Alps next week the race for the overall will be consumed by all the contenders’ efforts to gain time on Cadel Evans before the final time trial. Everyone is talking about Stage 17 and the finish on L’Alpe-D’Huez as the sight of the showdown, but I think the effort will need to be made on stages 15 and 16. CSC believes they need 3 minutes on Evans but the reality is they need to gain 4 minutes for Schleck and 5 for Sastre if they want a realistic shot to have the Yellow Jersey after the final time trial. If CSC waits until Stage 17 to attack, they will find that others will have conceded the race to Evans and that Evans will have allies who will chase down CSC attacks to preserve their own positions. Thus, I expect CSC will make a big effort Sunday on Stage 15 which begins with a big climb and presents an opportunity for Schleck or Sastre to get clear of Evans early in the stage. This would force Evans and his Silence Lotto team to chase all day and possibly set up an attack on the stages’ final climb by whichever CSC rider has followed Evans all day without doing any work. Denis Menchov may find himself the beneficiary of a CSC – Lotto battle over the weekend if he can simply hold out until the last climb and then launch an attack.
Alternately, Evans may prove able to resist any early attacks, shutting down CSC’s attempts to gain the lead. He may also get some help from Menchov’s Rabobank team in fending off CSC if Rabobank feels their best chance is one big attack by Menchov on L’Alpe-D’Huez. This might be good tactics by Rabobank if Menchov thinks he can outclimb Evans even briefly. CSC has eliminated Valverde for them, and helping Silence Lotto might eliminate CSC’s contenders, both of whom Denis Menchov can easily out time trial. Expect some odd alliances in the next few days.
Ultimately, I think Evans is the strongest man and will hold out for the win. I also think his team is a bit stronger than most people think and will be better able to protect him in the Alps. Finally I think CSC’s efforts to win stages will rob them of the energy they need to collectively defeat Evans. The fireworks should start again Sunday so if you’ve managed to still keep a positive attitude about the race tune in and you should see some good racing once again.
Posted by BVBigBro at July 18, 2008 07:44 AM
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