Kentucky Derby: What the Heck Happened?
When a horse race has a bizarre result like this year's Kentucky Derby, as a horseplayer, you have to do three things:
- Figure out what really happened
- Decide how to apply what you've learned
- And, finally, get over it
I'm not ready to get over Mine That Bird's shocking victory, but I am ready to analyze it. What happened was this: Mine That Bird's winning Beyer Speed Figure for the Derby was a low 105 (compare this to the 108 Rachel Alexandra got in the Oaks, the first time, by the way, that the Oaks winner received a higher figure than the Derby winner). The horses that finished behind Mine That Bird - Pioneerof The Nile, Musket Man and Papa Clem ran a little bit worse, figure wise, than they normally do. The inexperienced Dunkirk predictably bounced from his big effort in the Florida Derby and Friesan Fire practically got his hoof torn off at the start of the race and had no chance. Mine That Bird, on the other hand, got a perfect trip and was basically the only horse in the race to run better than he normally does. There's your winner.
I have an eight question guide to picking the Derby, but Mine That Bird's victory is going to make me add a ninth question. Who has won two or more stakes races? This year, seven horses in the field of 19 had. Boxing them together would have gotten you the $41,500 trifecta. If you looked for horses who had won at least one graded stakes race, you would have also found the $557K superfecta as well as the Super High Five that not a single horse player cashed on. Not bad for a day's work.
The lesson I'm learning for this Derby is that you should put on horses who win races. Forget about the potential of horses like Dunkirk and go for horses that performed well at two and like to win at three. Even with that question, you still wouldn't have gotten Mine That Bird, but you would have gotten closer.
Posted by at May 4, 2009 08:18 PM
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|# May 5th, 2009 8:26 AM BVBigBro|
|I believe the old computer program used to take that into account and I know it took winnings into account and the only ways to get a lot of winnings are to run all the time or do well in stakes races. |
|# May 5th, 2009 8:49 AM BVBigBro|
|I do some work with a guy who had seats on the finish line. He said you could see a horse making a late run on the inside and when the track announcer said "Mine that Bird" there was an audible "Who?" from the entire crowd. |
|# May 5th, 2009 11:30 AM kris|
|I still have that computer. I'm kind of kicking myself for not consulting it. Actually, maybe I'll use it on the field for kicks and see who it comes up with. If it picks Mine That Bird though, wow. |
|# May 5th, 2009 8:54 PM kris|
|The old horse racing computer said:
1. Pioneerof The Nile
2. Friesan Fire
3. Desert Party
So yeah, it was completely wrong too