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  • Breeders Cup Picks - Part One

       November 06, 2009

    Day one of the Breeders Cup starts today at 3:35 PM EST from Santa Anita. You can catch the races today on ESPN and tomorrow on a combo of ESPN and ABC. You'll see hundreds of the world's best horses, but you won't see racing's biggest star, Rachel Alexandra, because her petty owners are protesting Santa Anita's artificial surface. "Dirt" races at Santa Anita are run on the Pro-Ride surface, which has proven to be something of a great equalizer and turf horses have been able to compete with traditional dirt horses, which means that this year's Breeders Cup dirt races are filled with turf horses and Europeans.

    Here's some quick picks for today's races. I'm planning on doing some actual wagering tomorrow and should have a slightly more detailed analysis for that.

    Breeders Cup Marathon: At 1 3/4 miles, this really is a long race. I don't know much about these horses, but a hunch leads me to Eldaafer, a nicely bred son of A.P. Indy who won the 1 1/2 Brooklyn Handicap earlier this year.

    Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: The favorites in this race will be Lillie Langtry, House of Grace and Smart Seattle, but I'm going to go with the lightly raced and well bred Hatheer who finished just behind House of Grace and Smart Seattle in her last start.

    Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies: I wish I could bet this race, because I'll all over Connie And Michael here. She's only raced once, but won by over 7 lengths and comes from a great Claiborne Farm female family. She's just the perfect type of up and coming runner that can win a Breeders Cup race at a nice price.

    Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf: In this small, but classy, field, I really like last year's Juvenile Filly Turf winner Maram. She faltered a bit in her last start, but that doesn't bother me as I'd rather she be at her peak now than a month ago.

    Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint: I think Ventura will be tough, but I really the John Sadler-trained Evita Argentina. She's beaten colts and older mares already and has won over the course.

    Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic: Without the great Zenyatta, who will be racing tomorrow in the Classic, this race comes down to Careless Jewel, Life Is Sweet and Music Note. Life Is Sweet is proven over Pro Ride, but my loyalty to A.P. Indy requires me to pick his daughter Music Note for the win.

    Posted by at November 6, 2009 09:13 AM

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    #  November 6th, 2009 4:41 PM      kris
    Okay, so these picks couldn't suck more. Sorry.  
    #  November 7th, 2009 8:03 AM      kris
    Given how terrible yesterday was, I can't justify an entire post on day two - but here's what I'm thinking:

    Juvy Turf: I like Becky's Kitten's big closing rush and would be all over him except that every time I watch Interactif's last race I literally sigh with delight at his move around the turn. He reminds me of Miesque. Enough said.

    Juvy: I don't know - I guess I like Eskendereya as his last race was great and he has a pedigree that should suit a synthetic surface.

    Those are the two races I've spent the most time on so far. As for the rest - I'm leaning to Fatal Bullet in the Sprint, Chocolate Candy in the Dirt Mile, Lord Shanakill in the Turf Sprint, Justenuffhumor in the Mile, Dar Re Mi in the Turf and I'm just lost in the Classic. My heart wants the unbeaten great mare Zenyatta to win. I think the lightly raced Girolamo is the most brilliant horse in the race but may not like the distance and that Gio Ponti is the most likely winner. So, for right now it's Gio Ponti, but go Zenyatta!

    As an aside, if you have a chance, watch the Classic for Zenyatta's pre race dances if nothing else. She will literally dance in the paddock and the post parade. It's amazing.  
    #  November 7th, 2009 3:50 PM      kris
    It's been an ugly day so far, made uglier by Justenuffhumor's rider's insistence on going through horses instead of around them. Here's hoping Neko Bay can pull off an upset next and save the day  
    #  November 7th, 2009 6:30 PM      kris
    I didn't cash a ticket all day (I left before the Turf), but I don't care anymore because of Zenyatta. She's so amazing.  
    #  November 8th, 2009 9:19 AM      kris
    betting on the synthetic surfaces was interesting and educational - at first I was looking at things like the pace scenario, etc. and my picks were just nowhere in it - by the middle of the day I switched to analyzing them like turf races and literally only looking at the final quarter or 1/8 times and while I still wasn't getting winners at least my picks were in the mix.  



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