April 27, 2010

(see all of our 2010 Kentucky Derby preview articles)

While there's plenty to learn from past Derbies, I thought I'd spend a little time looking more closely at the contenders' pedigrees. When I make my Derby picks, I kind of gloss over pedigree, but it really is something I think about. Plus, I think it's fun to see horses you've liked in the past reflected in today's field. If nothing else, it gives you some rooting interests.

American Lion: is by Tiznow, who won two straight Breeders Cup Classics in a tough, gritty way. So far, Tiznow tends to sire later-developing horses who like some distance. It's a little surprising that American Lion is already a stakes winner this early in his career. I like Tiznow as a sire mostly because he traces directly back to Man O'War and the Godolphin Arabian, which is a little unusual these days. American Lion is out of a Storm Cat mare and has a lot of sprinter types on his female side. While a typical Tiznow shouldn't have a problem with the Derby distance, I do have a little bit of doubt about American Lion due to his speedy female side.

Awesome Act: is by the Canadian Awesome Again, who defeated Silver Charm and Swain in the memorable 1998 Breeders Cup Classic. He's sired some excellent horses like Ghostzapper and Ginger Punch and distance really isn't a question with him. Awesome Act is out of a Mr. Prospector mare who raced in Europe and his second dam is a nice Halo (sire of Sunday Silence) mare who has proved to be an excellent broodmare. Basically, I like Awesome Act's pedigree a lot more than I like the actual horse.

Backtalk: is a son of the popular Smarty Jones. So far, Smarty hasn't been a super sire, but there's definitely still time for him to sire some good ones. Backtalk is out of a daughter of Triple Crown winner Affirmed and looks to have lots of quality on that side of the pedigree with names like Nijinsky, Coaltown and Nashua. It's kind of a fun pedigree to look at because it's a little unusual, but I'm not getting any green or red flags from it.

Conveyance: is by the swift California colt Indian Charlie and out of a Holy Bull mare. As such, he traces back to Caro (sire of Derby winning filly Winning Colors). When I see this pedigree I see speed, speed and more speed. I expect Conveyance to lead the race, but this pedigree doesn't inspire any confidence that he'll get the Derby distance.

Dean's Kitten: is a son of grass racing star Kitten's Joy. His mother is a daughter of Ide and thus traces to the gutsy Forty Niner, one of my Dad's favorite horses. I'm not in love with this pedigree at all. I think it looks like he would be an excellent grass miler, not a Derby horse.

Devil May Care: is a daughter of Malibu Moon, a lightly raced son of A.P. Indy who has been lights out in the breeding shed. On her mother's side she traces to the classy Epsom Derby winner Roberto. I think Malibu Moon sires speedier types than A.P. Indy himself and I think I'd want more stoutness in a pedigree before I could back this filly in the Derby.

Discreetly Mine: is another grandson of A.P. Indy, this time through his Horse of the Year son Mineshaft. He comes from a very good female family. His mother got the good miler Discreet Cat when bred to the speedy Forestry, so it's reasonable she could get a classic type when bred to Mineshaft.

Dublin: is by the beloved Preakness/Belmont winner Afleet Alex. His mother ran 25 times and won over $700,000. This pedigree looks like it'd produce a tough, hard-knocking horse than shouldn't be distance challenged.

Endorsement: is a son of Distorted Humor, who sired 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide. He's a son of a nice A.P. Indy mare who has a lot of South American horses in her pedigree. For some reason, I always associate the South Americans with tough horses who like to run distances. I love seeing them in a pedigree. Again, I think I like this pedigree more than I like the actual horse.

Homeboykris: is a grandson of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus (yeah, FuPeg is already a grandpa. Time flies) out of a mare by Salutely, who primarily sired distance and steeplechase horses. This looks like a nice example of what lots of breeders like to do: get speed from the sire and stamina from the dam.

Ice Box: is yet another grandson of A.P. Indy, this time through his son Pulpit. On his mother's side, Ice Box descends from Storm Cat. I love the cross of Storm Cat and A.P. Indy because it means a horse is inbred to Secretariat through two of his best daughters. This is probably my favorite pedigree in the field as he also has some Alysheba, Alydar and distance influences like Prince John. Not to mention that his sire Pulpit comes from a classy Claiborne Farm family.

Jackson Bend: is by the relatively unknown Florida stallion Hear No Evil and is out of a daughter of Preakness/Belmont winner Tabasco Cat. It's not the most distinguished or distance-oriented pedigree, but you can kinda see how it could have produced a tough little bugger like Jackson Bend.

Line Of David:: is a son of Lion Heart, who finished second in Smarty Jones' Kentucky Derby. I always admired Lion Heart because I thought he was an exceptionally brave front runner. Ideally, he's passed that heart onto his runners. If I was breeding to Lion Heart, I'd want to make sure that the mare had some stamina, but in this case Line Of David is out of a Capote mare and Capote is typically a speed influence. I think this pedigree was designed to get a fast, front-running horse who's going to shown some courage but may not get the Derby distance. I think that's Line Of David to a tee.

Lookin At Lucky: is by leading sire Smart Strike, sire of Horse of the Year Curlin and turf champion English Channel, among others. On his female side, Lucky descends from Danzig and Ruffian's half brother, Icecapade. He's got some speed and turf influences there, but overall I wouldn't be at all concerned about his ability to either get the Derby distance or run effectively on dirt.

Make Music For Me: is by Bernstein, a son of Storm Cat, out of a Carson City mare. To me, that spells speed. I also see some turf influences in his pedigree, but nothing that gives me confidence that he'll go the Derby distance.

Mission Impazible: is a grandson of Unbridled through his son Unbridled's Song. Descendants of Unbridled won both the Derby and the Belmont last year. His mother's pedigree is interesting as she's a relatively old mare who was from what had to be one of the last crops by Hold Your Peace. As such, she has names like the stamina influence Princequillo pretty close up in her pedigree. Even though Mission Impazible has a high dosage index number, this really is, I think, a nice stamina pedigree.

Noble's Promise: has, to me, a very speed oriented pedigree. He's by the two-year old star Cuvee and his mother is a daughter of the quick Clever Trick (which means, Ruffian fans, that he too descends from Ruffian's half brother Icecapade). The only saving grace here is that he also has distance runners like Proud Truth and Nijinsky too. I don't know. I don't like this pedigree at all for the Kentucky Derby.

Paddy O'Prado: has horses like European star Sadler's Wells, Prized and Kris S. in his pedigree, my problem with Paddy O'Prado isn't that he won't get the Derby distance, but rather that his pedigree indicates that he should be running on grass, not dirt.

Sidney's Candy: is a son of Argentinian champion Candy Ride. Candy Ride ran a few times in the United States and proved his worth by winning the Pacific Classic and breaking the track record for the Derby distance of a mile and a quarter. Candy Ride also traces back to the exciting stretch runner Cryptoclearance. On his mother's side, Sidney is out of a Storm Cat mare. His grandam, Exchange, was a millionaire, so he's got some quality on that side of the family. I think this pedigree shows a nice balance of speed and stamina and although Sidney hasn't raced on dirt, his pedigree indicates he shouldn't have a problem with it.

Stately Victor: is a son of Horse of the Year Ghostzapper out of a mare by Dynaformer (sire of Barbaro). This is nice pedigree and Stately Victor should be able to run the distance. The only question mark is that this could really be more of a grass pedigree and Stately Victor hasn't had good form on dirt.

Super Saver: is our final grandson of A.P. Indy, this time through his daughter Supercharger. His sire is the beautiful gray Maria's Mon, who also sired 2001 Derby winner Monarchos. This is, to put it simply, an awesome pedigree. Supercharger comes from one of the best female families in the world, tracing back directly to the great foundation mare La Troienne. Of all of the horses in the race, Super Saver would probably be the most valuable stallion if he won.

So, of all of the horses in the race, my top five on pedigree alone would be:

1. Ice Box
2. Super Saver
3. Awesome Act
4. Endorsement Lookin At Lucky
5. American Lion

Posted by kris at April 27, 2010 12:29 PM

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