2010 Preakness Pick
Since 1979, over 80% of Preaknesses were won by horses that competed in the Kentucky Derby. The horses that skipped the Derby and won the Preakness were good enough to win other important races right around the Derby, they just didn't run in it for whatever reason.
This year's newcomers aren't nearly as accomplished. In fact, none of them won their last race. To my mind, they weren't in the Kentucky Derby simply because they weren't good enough. I see no compelling reason to think they're suddenly good enough now.
I think the Preakness will be won by one of the five colts who competed in the Derby: Jackson Bend, Lookin At Lucky, Super Saver, Paddy O'Prado & Dublin. Basically, every one of them other than Super Saver had a rough trip in the Kentucky Derby. But, none of them were that good before the Derby. I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think any of them lost the Kentucky Derby because of their trip. They lost the race because they weren't good enough. Lookin At Lucky is probably the best of the lot, but even when he finally got clear towards the end of the race, he didn't make up a ton of ground. He just passed tired horses.
Super Saver, on the other hand, got a good trip and ran a good race. To my mind, he probably ran the kind of race that didn't take a ton out of him and I expect that a) he can repeat that performance and b) that performance will be good enough to win the Preakness. So, my official pick is Super Saver. For the exacta I also like Lookin At Lucky and Schoolyard Dreams. Although a blanket finish between Caracortado and Paddy O'Prado would be fun from a purely rhyming perspective. :)
Who do you like?
Posted by kris at May 14, 2010 07:17 AM
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|# May 14th, 2010 1:38 PM BVBigBro|
|I went with Dublin. Jackson Bend was intriguing, but only because he ran such a horrible race in the derby. I would have liked Lucky, but I thought the odds on him would have been 7 or 8 - 1 and not 3-1. |
|# May 15th, 2010 5:31 PM kris|
|Kind of annoying to hear that Super Saver lost a bunch of weight approximately 3 seconds before the start of the race. Just sayin' that that kind of information would have been helpful...
Nice race by Lucky - it's disappointing to not have a Triple Crown winner, but it's good to have the class rise to the top here too. I was also impressed with First Dude hanging that tough on the lead after some quick fractions. I wasn't very familiar with that horse before but he certainly looks to have a future.
|# May 15th, 2010 5:41 PM BVBigBro|
|Didn't make anything on Dublin. Made some on Lucky. Ice Box for the Belmont. |
|# May 15th, 2010 6:31 PM kris|
|The Belmont is a whole new ballgame - I don't like Ice Box at all. |
|# May 16th, 2010 9:37 AM kris|
|Here's your small (Jackson Bend), medium (Lucky) and large (First Dude) sized horses:
As of now, Lucky is NOT going to the Belmont, nor is Super Saver. Maybe Ice Box, maybe First Dude. Who knows?
I kind of love First Dude now. He's HUGE and beautiful and he's another grandson of A.P. Indy.