2010 Belmont Stakes - Picks
My brother has been waiting to pick Ice Box in the Belmont Stakes for five weeks now. For that same five weeks, I've been waiting to point out that the Belmont is not necessarily won by a flashy closer. Then, however, I looked at my chart of past winners and realized just how few front runners really do win the Belmont. In my chart, I define stalkers as horses who had the lead by the top of the stretch and closers as horses who took the lead in the stretch. Since 1979, stalkers and closers have each won 45% of Belmonts.
Knowing that, I can't so easily pooh pooh Ice Box. Drat.
Personally, I think the race comes down to three horses: Ice Box, Preakness runner up First Dude and impressive Dwyer Stakes winner Fly Down. I think all three colts should be able to get the distance and all three have run similar figures. In the end, it'll come down to how the race is run.
First Dude is literally the only speed in the race and I think he'll take the lead and attempt to wire the field. But keep in mind that this doesn't mean he's going to go speed crazy on the front end. Nope, he's going to go exactly as fast as he needs to stay in front. I suspect that that won't be very fast. First Dude is a huge horse - he's not the type to make a bold move, but rather the type to set a fast rhythm and keep going. Ice Box and Fly Down, on the other hand, are going to want to come from behind. However, given the likely slow pace scenario, they can't be too far behind as First Dude isn't likely to just collapse on the lead. But given that jockeys are typically kind of dumb, I suspect that both colts will be too far off the lead and will have too much to do in the stretch.
Who do you like?
Posted by kris at June 4, 2010 08:52 AM
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|# June 4th, 2010 9:09 AM BVBigBro|
|And Make Music For Me. I've also been waiting to bet on Make Music For Me. |
|# June 5th, 2010 5:41 PM kris|
|Oh First Dude...he's just such a brave front runner, even if he didn't win. Love that horse. |