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  • 2010 Breeders Cup - Friday Picks

       November 04, 2010

    (see all of our 2010 Breeders Cup articles)

    Breeders Cup weekend kicks off Friday with six races, five for fillies and mares and one for plodders. After much (okay, some) analysis, here are my official picks (please note - once I'm at the betting window, I might get greedy with odds, but this is what I'll pick for posterity).

    Breeders Cup Marathon: This race has a motley mix of American plodders and European also-rans going a strange distance of 1 3/4 miles on the main track. I have no idea. Looking at the field, it looks like everyone wants to either come from far off the pace or stalk the lead. If no one wants to lead, that might set up the race for the European Bright Horizon who has raced on the lead and won races at up to two miles. Of the Americans, I'm most interested in A.U. Miner since he's won at a 1 1/2 miles and has, by all reports, looked good at Churchill Downs this week. Of the two, I guess I'll pick A.U. Miner because he's bred for dirt while Bright Horizon has a strictly turf pedigree.

    Juvenile Fillies Turf: The juvenile fillies on turf are a better bunch than their male counterparts. I'm completely sold on the favorite here, Winter Memories. I think she has the explosive kick necessary to win on the turf and that she's just a special filly that I expect to win going away at low odds. I think one of the other North Americans, Kathmanblu or Wyomia, should be her toughest competition.

    Filly & Mare Sprint: This is a deceptive "sprint" in that it's 7 furlongs, so it's just long enough to require a sprinter with a little starch in her stride. A lot of people really like Bob Baffert's Gabby's Golden Gal, coming off of a long layoff, while others like last year's winner Informed Decision, Dubai Majesty, Sara Louise or Rightly So. Seriously, this is a hard race to pick. I'm going to go with the three-year old Champagne d'Oro. I like her because she's won at this distance and at a mile. I think she has the speed to stalk the pace and get first run, but enough stamina to hold on for the win.

    Juvenile Fillies: This is one of the few races where Churchill Downs jockey specialist Calvin Borel will be on a contender. He'll be riding Tell A Kelly and I expect that he'll take a lot of money with him. However, word on the track is that Tell A Kelly has looked awful this week. The European filly, Theysken's Theory, is interesting with her dirt pedigree and I thought the likely favorite, A Z Warrior, looked awesome in her workout earlier this week, but I don't know that she wants to run two turns and a longer distance. I probably shouldn't do this, but I'm going to pick the A.P. Indy filly Believe In A.P.. She's only won a maiden race, but won it impressively and seems to want a distance.

    Filly & Mare Turf: Last year's winner, Midday, should be a big favorite here and she's been a top performer in Europe all year, as has Plumania. I really like Red Desire in here though. She's raced against the top males both in Japan and Dubai, beating Dubai World Cup winner Gloria de Campeao earlier this year. She ran well to be third last month in her first race off of a long layoff and I think she's primed for an big effort. Plus, it's just time for a Japanese winner of the Breeders Cup, don't you think?

    Ladies' Classic: Without Zenyatta or Rachel Alexandra, this race loses a lot of its luster. I think the long Churchill Downs stretch, however, sets it up perfectly for Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck. Blind Luck never makes it easy, but I do think there's going to be enough pace in the race for her to run at.

    So, I've got (with morning line):

    Marathon - A.U. Miner (9-2)
    Juvenile Fillies Turf - Winter Memories (2-1)
    Filly & Mare Sprint - Champagne d'Oro (6-1)
    Juvenile Fillies - Believe In A.P. (15-1)
    Filly & Mare Turf - Red Desire (8-1)
    Ladies' Classic - Blind Luck (9-5)


    Posted by kris at November 4, 2010 07:29 AM

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    Comments

    #  November 4th, 2010 10:38 AM      kris
    I was re-reading some picks from past years and I don't really know why I do this. I'm consistently wrong! I had one year, 1995 I think, that I was awesome. Maybe I'm due?  
     
    #  November 5th, 2010 11:51 AM      kris
    One of the favorites in the Filly & Mare Sprint, Rightly So, was scratched.  
     
    #  November 5th, 2010 2:52 PM      kris
    I'm now reporting live from Canterbury Park - i.e. degenerate gambler central. As expected, the real odds are far more attractive than the morning line - A.U. Miner is sitting at 6-1 instead of 9-2, for example.  
     
    #  November 5th, 2010 3:17 PM      kris
    so far - no good. A.U. Miner was 4th. Eldaafer, who I picked last year and didn't do squat wins it. Not that I'm bitter or anything.  
     
    #  November 5th, 2010 3:27 PM      kris
    Okay, for the first time in my life I benefitted from a DQ. A.U. Miner was totally interfered with at the head of the stretch and was moved up to 3rd and luckily for me I bet him across the board. $5.20 to show for $2, so I'm about even right now. Whew!  
     
    #  November 5th, 2010 3:35 PM      kris
    So, watching from the simulcast you miss a lot like apparently the jockeys involved in the inquiry got in a fight in the winners circle!

    MIDGET BOXING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Also, the all-A.P. Indy exacta, which I did NOT have paid a cool $453.60  
     
    #  November 5th, 2010 3:46 PM      kris
    follow my wagers here  
     
    #  November 5th, 2010 4:08 PM      kris
    ya win some, you lose some - I think Winter Memories totally got interfered with and finished 2nd, but they didn't take the winner, More Than Real, down. Boo.

    In the Filly & Mare Sprint, Champagne d'Oro, who I picked precisely because I thought she could get the lead and not fade, got the lead...and then faded to 4th. The winner was Dubai Majesty with one of the "crappy" horses Zenyatta has been beating, Switch, in 2nd.

    In the Juvenile Fillies - Awesome Feather was, uh, awesome. My pick, Believe In A.P. was a closing 4th.

    My horses so far are running well (3rd, 2nd, 4th, 4th) but I gotta get some winners. I'm also placing advance wagers for tomorrow today and hopefully some of those will be good enough to be worth driving back to cash.

    And another 4th place finish with Red Desire. Seriously? Is there any way I can bet to have a horse just finish 4th?

    Blind Luck finished 2nd.

    Well, I totally got my ass kicked, but I do feel a little satisfaction in that my picks all ran well.  
     

     

     


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