2011 Kentucky Derby - 5 Weeks To Go
(see all of our 2011 Kentucky Derby articles)
With the Kentucky Derby just five weeks away, it's time for the major contenders to run their final prep races. Sunday's Florida Derby is probably the best prep to date and features:
1. Soldat, 122, Garcia, McLaughlin, K, 9-5
2. To Honor and Serve, 122, Gomez, Mott, W, 4-1
3. Arch Traveler, 122, Lezcano, Jerkens, J, 20-1
4. Bowman's Causeway, 122, Lopez, Biancone, P, 20-1
5. Shackleford, 122, Castanon, Romans, D, 20-1
6. Stay Thirsty, 122, R. A. Dominguez, Pletcher, T, 8-1
7. Dialed In, 122, Leparoux, R Zito, N, 8-1
8. Flashpoint, 122, Velasquez, Dutrow, R., 6-1
Soldat and Dialed In have both won major races in Florida this winter, while Stay Thirsty won the Gotham Stakes in New York. To Honor And Serve was one of the best two-year olds last year and Flashpoint was the spectacular, front-running winner of the Hutchenson Stakes.
My guess is that Soldat will rate off of Flashpoint and while the others might make a run, he'll still have enough left to stagger home in the stretch. Dialed In will close just enough to set himself up as a sucker bet in the Kentucky Derby.
Posted by kris at April 1, 2011 07:27 AM
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|# April 1st, 2011 9:26 AM kris|
|The other major contenders/prep races look like this right now:
Santa Anita Derby:
Blue Grass Stakes:
|# April 1st, 2011 1:56 PM SaratogaJim|
|I'm hoping that Stay Thirsty has enough to prove himself, he is my spoiler in the bunch |
|# April 1st, 2011 1:58 PM kris|
|Yeah, I have a soft spot for him since he traces back in tail-female line to Man O' War's wild full sister Masda. |
|# April 2nd, 2011 11:01 AM kris|
|DRF does a nice job with its Derby Watch. You can see their top 20 and their likely next starts.
What's depressing is that even in the wake of Zenyatta and with such exciting Derby prospects there are exactly ZERO Derby preps being televised on the networks or ESPN. So there's no chance to develop excitement or rooting interests for casual viewers before the Derby.
It sucks, especially this year when you have a champion like Uncle Mo who's got a very media friendly owner. You have a wild front runner like The Factor with Baffert as the trainer and the whole tie in to Bill O'Reilly and then an exciting stretch runner like Premier Pegasus - it should be easy for people to pick one, but not if they're never given the chance.
|# April 3rd, 2011 8:34 PM kris|
|Dialed In closes from way back to nip Shackleford at the wire. To Honor And Serve is a distant third, Flashpoint faded to 4th and Stay Thirsty & Soldat never fired. The big excuse will be that it was super hot out and some of the horses seemed pretty dull.
|# April 4th, 2011 8:33 AM SaratogaJim|
|Very disappointed in the race, I don't think any one of the horses, except for Shackleford maybe, came off looking good. Sure Dialed In had a great stretch - but at a mile and a 1/4 with a 20 horse field I dont hold much for him. Not a good race for thier last prep. |
|# April 4th, 2011 8:36 AM kris|
|Agreed for the most part. I thought Shackleford ran a pretty brave race but Dialed In did close well - he certainly seems like a likely candidate for the Derby trifecta at least.
Shackleford may not have enough graded earnings to make it in the field.
|# April 5th, 2011 10:51 AM kris|
|I'm kind of interested in Santiva & Astrology. They both seem like they're a bit under the radar.
Also, if I owned R Heat Lightning I'd start thinking Derby for her, just in case we get a bunch of injuries. I don't think she could beat Uncle Mo, but if he doesn't make it I think she could contend. And Zazu for that matter.