2011 Kentucky Derby - Two Weeks Out
(see all of our 2011 Kentucky Derby articles)
Once again last weekend, colts with a chance to be the Kentucky Derby favorite ran up the track as both The Factor and Santiva disappointed in their respective prep races. This weekend, all we've got is the Lexington Stakes and the only entrant with a shot at the Derby is Silver Medallion.
In the meantime, I'm busy compiling my master Derby spreadsheet. Check out our 2010 Kentucky Derby archive for more information about the factors I'm tracking. One note though, I've lowered the Beyer Speed Figure necessary to qualify as a "good" two-year old performance in lieu of winning a stakes race at 2. My gut says that Beyers have been arbitrarily lowered in the last two years, so if a horse runs at least an 85 at two, even if they didn't win a stakes race, I think they've demonstrated sufficient precocity to potentially win the Derby.
That spreadsheet takes awhile to pull together, so it will be a work in process, but certainly worth checking back on in the two weeks to come. Some very preliminary analysis of the field does certainly show that the horses seem to be evenly matched and so I think it's absolutely critical to try to figure out who you can toss, just to make your wagers affordable.
Right now, depending on post position, I expect Dialed In to go off as a lukewarm favorite, which is awesome since he's an easy toss for me, at least for the win.
Posted by kris at April 20, 2011 09:06 PM
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|# April 21st, 2011 8:38 AM SaratogaJim|
|Really, an early toss for Dialed In? There will be speed, I think The Factor showed he needs to go to the front, so there wil be speed, which I think sets up for Dialed In. He will definatelyt be in my exacta box - will he win - I just dont think he can be thrown out for the win |
|# April 21st, 2011 8:43 AM kris|
|I'm pretty sure I'm tossing (for the win only - Dialed In has the makings of a plodder who will clunk up for a piece, no doubt) any horse who didn't show decent two-year old form. There's still a pretty strong correlation between two-year old performance and Derby victories. |
|# April 21st, 2011 2:20 PM kris|
|I really like the idea I just read where the qualifications to get into the Derby (now, graded earnings, in the future maybe something else) not only get you in the gate but would also be able to used to determine post positions: the horse with the most earnings gets first pick of post, 2nd most earnings gets second pick, etc. Think of how that simple change would have completely changed last year's Derby where the two best horses in the field got stuck with the two worst posts. |
|# April 22nd, 2011 12:38 PM SaratogaJim|
|Think if the qualifications were total earnings...You wouldnt see the 4 race experience that much, the more races the better the post, hmmm.... |
|# April 23rd, 2011 4:27 PM SaratogaJim|
|As for your racing gods angle for Uncle Mo - his colors are that of the NY Mets owner is a big fan of them. Be worried...not a good sign |
|# April 24th, 2011 9:23 AM kris|
|Hey now, the Mets won a World Series in the last century, it's not like he's a Cubs fan!
I think the Derby Gods angle clearly goes to Archarcharch at this point.
|# April 25th, 2011 9:18 PM kris|
|DRF has started their Derby clocker reports. For what it's worth, last year he LOVED Super Saver based on his gallops and works. |
|# April 25th, 2011 9:19 PM kris|
|Mo in the mud