2011 Kentucky Derby - Post Positions
(see all of our 2011 Kentucky Derby articles)
I'm watching online as they fill out the Kentucky Derby field. They're drawing the first ten and then taking a break, so I'll post the top half and then complete the rest. Here it is:
2. Brilliant Speed
3. Twice The Appeal
4. Stay Thirsty
5. Decisive Moment
6. Comma To The Top
7. Pants On Fire
8. Dialed In
9. Derby Kitten
11. Master Of Hounds
13. Mucho Macho Man
15. Midnight Interlude
16. Animal Kingdom
18. Uncle Mo
20. Watch Me Go
Posted by kris at May 4, 2011 04:20 PM
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|# May 4th, 2011 4:32 PM kris|
|Horrible draw for Archarcharch. People will say it's a terrible draw for Mo, but he's outside all of the speed, which is good since I imagine they want him to stalk - they get to see what everyone else is doing and shouldn't have too much trouble. |
|# May 5th, 2011 8:17 AM SaratogaJim|
|I'm liking the 13,14,15 positions..it's early yet - time to crunch |
|# May 5th, 2011 8:36 AM kris|
|yep - that's the prime real estate and I also sorta fancy the 12 |
|# May 5th, 2011 9:59 AM BVBigBro|
|I like Archarcharch and Midnightinterlude. |
|# May 5th, 2011 10:34 AM kris|
|I'll post it later today or tomorrow, but yeah, I think Archarcharch is the only one that satisfies all of my system's requirements, but I hate the post.
I think if he's 100% it's still Uncle Mo, but otherwise I'm mulling Archarcharch, Shackleford & Santiva and then I'm mildly interested in Brilliant Speed and Pants On Fire.
I dunno - this is a toughy.
|# May 5th, 2011 10:37 AM BVBigBro|
|I didn't find it that tough because there are quite a few horses that aren't dominating and really haven't been improving. I was mulling Shackleford too, but I'm limiting myself to two picks. |
|# May 5th, 2011 10:44 AM kris|
|At Churchill, apparently the 1 post for the Derby basically breaks inside the rail and a horse has to move. What I'm curious about is in, let's say, the last 10 years does that 1 post horse typically have trouble according to the official chart?
2010: Lookin' At Lucky - raped
2009: West Side Bernie - no
2008: Cool Coal Man - yes
2007: Sedgefield - no
2006: Jazil - yes, but he did it to himself
2005: Sort It Out - no
2004: Limehouse - yes
2003: Supah Blitz - yes
2002: Johannesburg - no
2001: Songandaprayer -no
2000: Anees - yes
So, yeah, it's not that bad and honestly, of these horses really only Lookin' At Lucky and maybe Jazil realistically were contenders.
|# May 5th, 2011 10:49 AM kris|
|Soldat is another one that fits what I want - a multiple stakes winner with two-year old form, but I just think he's a need-to-lead type that's too slow to lead. |
|# May 5th, 2011 10:52 AM BVBigBro|
|Archarcharch runs from off the pace. It should be a fairly simple matter to break him slow and ease into the back of the field.
A bad break from the gate is going to hurt for every horse in every position other than a closer who has an outside post, so I don't think it warrants too much attention.
|# May 5th, 2011 2:23 PM SaratogaJim|
|I love AAA, but I'm staying away. Easing him off the pack and into the back of the field aint as easy as it sounds. You always will have the spoilers in there, just a horse or two that breaks in behind AAA and hes boxed and screwed.
I like Shack, his position as a stalker coupled with BS, but I'm not done yet..
|# May 6th, 2011 11:09 AM BVBigBro|
|I don't go all nuts on post position because there are spoilers and scenarios for all the post positions that can wind up screwing your horse.
A stalker on the outside who has a bad break gets to choose between running from farther off the pace, running an extra 1/16 outside to get to his position or wading into the mob in the middle of the field and hoping for the best.