You are on an individual archive page

Click here to return to the main page

Wikipedia does good things. Reward them.

The Daily Links Page
Got a link to submit?
  • New Evidence Proves First Flag Made By Betsy Ross Actually Shirt For Gay Friend
  • Colbert Leads Huntsman in S.C.
  • Polish prosecutor 'shoots self after news conference'
  • Jim Rome leaving ESPN. Bonus: Footage of Jim Rome getting attacked by Jim Everett & crying like a baby
  • Broncos, Tim Tebow stun Steelers in OT, win 29-23 in NFL playoffs
  • Video: Remember 2008
       [ 1 comment ]
  • Beezow Doo-Doo Zopittybop-Bop-Bop faces weapon and drug charges
  • Video: Green Bay anchorman loves lamp
  • Video: Rodgers & Raji in the new Discount Double Check ad
  • Jim Rome: out of The Jungle and onto the (horse) farm
  • New IL Law Requires Photo ID To Buy Drain Cleaner
  • Fawn Cuddles Kitten, Hearts Explode
  • The priest who changed the course of history for the worse... by rescuing four-year-old Hitler from drowning in icy river
  • Get Fit or Get Fined: Web Service Offers to Charge You for Skipping the Gym
  • Fine proposed for botching US national anthem
  • Why Best Buy is Going out of Business...Gradually
       [ 1 comment ]
  • Edina boutique takes heat for trashing $4,000-plus gowns
  • Law Student Goes 'Homeless by Choice' Touts Value of Gym Club Membership
  • VIDEO: Snoop Dogg on 'The Price Is Right'
  • Flynn and Out
  • Don't put Bielema on the firing line
       [ 1 comment ]
  • Your end of the season Vikings comment thread
  • Mass. budget motel fights forfeiture by feds
  • Vikings scrutinize downtown Mpls. stadium site near basilica
  • Kelly Clarkson criticized on Twitter after singer endorses Ron Paul for President 
  • Political Predictions for 2012
  • We're All Doing The Best We Can
  • Video Of Little Girl Getting Pissed Off About Pink Toys Will Make Your Heart Swell
  • The 10 best sports-related Hitler Reactions of 2011
  • Happy Endings on the housing crisis
  • Why You Just Got New York Times Spam
  • There Will Be No Friday This Week In Samoa
  • The Most Hipster State In The US
  • Online Merchants Home in on Imbibing Consumers
       [ 1 comment ]
  • On islamic fashion
       [ 1 comment ]
  • Sears as Lampert's 'Mismanaged Asset' Loses Customers to Macy's
       [ 1 comment ]
  • 5 social network predictions for 2012
  • Cheetah, chimp star of classic Tarzan movies, dies at 80
  • The Hottest Things on TV in 2011
  • Beer in cans: It's not just for Bud anymore
  • Seven Packers earn Pro Bowl selections
  • The Worst Angry Christmas Tweets In the World
  • Minnesota cities try to hold back on rented housing
  • Why Iowa Shouldn't Vote First Anymore
  • Some Falcons Players Upset Drew Brees Went For The Record Last Night
  • We've Identified Jilted Packergirl
  • With its 'W' initiative, ESPN tries to solve the equation of serving women sports fans
  • Owner surprised to find cat regularly catches bus
  • Charles Barkley: Skip Bayless Has Surpassed Peter Vecsey As The Biggest Jackass In The History Of Journalism
  • Handicapping the 2011 NFL MVP Race, 2.0


  • 2011 Kentucky Derby - Pace Makes The Race

       May 05, 2011

    (see all of our 2011 Kentucky Derby articles)

    I've been playing with the Daily Racing Form's awesome formulator past performances for the Derby and trying to figure out the race's likely pace scenario. I know everyone thinks it'll be a super fast pace, but I do have my doubts, just because the only really fast paced prep races were because of The Factor, and he's not here. Anyway, to help, I've decided to classify the field with the likely early positions and try to figure things out.

    Fast Front Runners: These are horses that need the lead and can actually throw out some quick fractions, let's say then can run that first quarter in around 22 seconds. These are the ones that would produce any suicidal pace:

    Decisive Moment
    Comma To The Top

    Slow Front Runners: Horses that typically need the lead in order to perform but haven't actually run that fast of fractions. They may be able to adjust and stalk in the Derby or they may be complete tosses:


    Potential Stalkers: Horses that usually run on the lead but have had some success in stalking trips and could lay off a fast Derby pace if necessary:

    Pants On Fire
    Uncle Mo

    Classic Stalkers: Horses that have performed well from just a few lengths off of the pace:

    Twice The Appeal
    Stay Thirsty
    Master Of Hounds
    Mucho Macho Man
    Midnight Interlude
    Animal Kingdom
    Watch Me Go

    Closers: Closers who've shown an explosive move, typically hitting the lead nearer to the top of the stretch:

    Derby Kitten

    Plodders: Horses who are getting up in the final strides or just missing in their prep races:

    Brilliant Speed
    Dialed In

    My gut tells me that we're in for a more moderate pace and that the winner is going to come from the stalkers or closers, not the plodders. Comma To The Top and Decisive Moment just don't strike me as the Old Trieste, Songandaprayer or Spanish Chestnut type.

    There's still more work to go in order to get to a winner, but the pace scenario is a big step in the right direction (I hope!).

    Posted by kris at May 5, 2011 09:50 AM

        The trackback entry for this page is :


    Trackback Entries



    #  May 5th, 2011 9:57 AM      kris
    The comment line in Comma To The Top's last five races:

    Drifted out str, caught
    Drifted out str, weakened
    Drifted out into lane
    Bid, led, driving
    Drifted out str, held

    In other words, you don't to be outside of him heading into the stretch, but on the other hand, it seems that it's virtually certain that the rail is going to open up for someone.  



      page rendered in 0.0403 seconds | ©2004, 2005