2011 Kentucky Derby - Five Things I Learned
(see all of our 2011 Kentucky Derby articles)
1. I think my questions to help narrow the field are right on. Once again, a horse with a graded stakes win and two-year old performance wins. Also, I correctly predicted the moderate pace and, once pedigree was factored in, I had narrowed the field to five horses, including the longshot winner. However, what I haven't yet figured out is how to bet the Derby. I think in the future, in addition to making one official pick, I've got to cover all of the horses I narrow it down to for the win, at least in a small way.
2. The clocker reports, particularly from Mike Welch at the Daily Racing Form, are an invaluable resource. While Animal Kingdom's pedigree screamed "turf", reports from the track were that he was handling the Churchill Downs surface beautifully. I ignored that and paid the price! Overall, Animal Kingdom, Archarcharch and Shackleford were the three horses who got the most raves in the morning.
3. The only horses screwed by outside post positions are need-the-lead types (a la Sidney's Candy last year). The rest of the horses do just fine on the outside because of the long run to the first turn. This year's superfecta was filled out by 16-19-14-13.
4. Don't get too caught up in surface differences. Animal Kingdom had never run on dirt and had a turf pedigree. but he won the Derby easily on conventional dirt. What I'm finding is that as more and more horses run on multiple surfaces, the difference between those surfaces seems to fade a bit. I'm not sure I'm even going to track what horses have never run on dirt next year.
5. Don't fall in love with a horse. They'll only break your heart. I so fell in love with Uncle Mo last summer and while I'm disappointed he didn't run in the Derby, I'm absolutely devastated thinking that there might be something seriously wrong with him. The first horse I ever loved was Landaluce and I can't shake the feeling that Uncle Mo is going to suffer a similar fate. Let's all keep our hooves crossed that they can find out what's wrong with him and help him get better.
For the Preakness, let's hope that The Factor enters and that everyone gets to run their race. It'd be a lot of fun!
Posted by kris at May 9, 2011 08:51 AM
The trackback entry for this page is : http://www.inthehat.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/2007
|# May 9th, 2011 9:14 PM kris|
|Animal Kingdom as a foal: