Trump Approval Ratings from Fellow GOP, Not a Sound Basis for Predicting Outcomes of 2020 Elections

Customary of news coming from U.S. president Donald Trump, he is currently spreading information that his approval ratings went up after targeting Congress’ 4 women-of color. The statement is partly true, but that went without clarifying that the approval came mostly from Republican supporters and not from a larger number of voters representing the country.

A new poll by USA Today showed that 57% of Republican voters agree that Trump’s verbal tirade against the four Congresswomen collectively referred to as The Squad, was not racist. However, in the latest CBS poll on an overall scale, 59% of the American voters polled, do not approve of Trump’s racist remarks, leaving 40 % who signified approval.

On a party level, 93% percent of Democrats and 68% percent of those supporting independents, regard Trump’s racist tweets as offensive, while among Republicans, only 37% held the same stance.

The latest party-level polls clearly indicate that there exists a partisan divide. Yet in a country in which the number of non-white population can have a significant impact in the 2020 presidential elections, their force is fast becoming a factor to consider. Racist tweets and “send her back” chants against lawmakers-of -color can surely influence the votes of a large demographic of non-white Americans.

In fact, Republican members who are aware of this, are trying to distance themselves from Trump’s racial slurs. Most of them come from American states in which the majority already consists of the so-called minority groups.

West Texas Republican Representative Will Hurd, the only black Republican in the Lower House and one of four GOP members who sided with House Democrats in condemning Trump’s racist tweets said.

”The tweets were not only racist, but they are also bad politics.”

American States in which Minorities Now Represent Majority of the Population

In stressing the impact of states with large numbers of minority voters, analysis of the July 2018 US census is currently showing projections that in less than a quarter century, white people will eventually make up the minority. The forecast is that around 70% of today’s population will see that happen during their lifetime.

In five American states, namely California, Hawaii, District of Columbia, New Mexico and Texas, the shift from minority-majority has already taken place. According to the projections, the tipping point of the shift to minority-majority across the country, could occur just in time for the 2020 presidential elections. That is because many among the minority groups will turn 18 years old on the said year. As an example, below is the:

Latest U.S. Census Estimates of Texas’ Minority-Majority

  • 41.5% – White Alone
  • 39.6% – Hispanic or Latino
  • 12.8% – African American
  • 5% – Asian